GOV 310L Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Dont, Gerrymandering, Incumbent

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1 Sep 2015

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Politics by other means in the age of obama. Does the change in the democratic coalition under obama undermine or support g&s. With the major development of the internet, massive social media tools rise up. The old mobilize vs. moderate debate still holds but: The working class white voters on whom democrats used to rely are declining in number and in uence. New voters still cause losses with old voters, but there are enough new voters to make up the di erence in some circumstances. New democratic voters face higher opportunity costs for voting, thus are much more likely to turn out during presidential elections. During legislative elections, old dynamics are only stronger: older, wealthier whites pushed more decisively towards. Republican-leaning groups more likely to turn out in non-presidential elections. End result: democratic control of the president has been solidi ed, but at the cost of the legislature. Key point: these new mobilizations have reinforced electoral deadlock.

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Dems, GOP talk up deficit reduction, but don't act

WASHINGTON (AP) â Liberals' loud objections to White House proposals for slowing the growth of huge social programs make it clear that neither political party puts a high priority on reducing the deficit, despite much talk to the contrary.

For years, House Republicans have adamantly refused to raise income taxes, even though U.S. taxes are historically low, and the Bush-era tax cuts were a major cause of the current deficit.

And now, top Democrats are staunchly opposing changes to Medicare and Social Security benefits, despite studies showing the programs' financial paths are unsustainable.

Unless something gives, it's hard to see what will produce the significant compromises needed to tame the federal debt, which is nearing $17 trillion.

"There's not much of an appetite for deficit reduction," said Bob Bixby of the Concord Coalition, which pushes for "responsible fiscal policy."

There might be a few small steps this year, he said, when the government again needs to raise its borrowing limit. But a "grand bargain" involving significant spending cuts and revenue increases seems unlikely, Bixby said.

He added, "It's a little depressing to hear the reactions to the president's budget, from both sides."

There was nothing surprising about Republican denunciations of Obama's proposed tax increases, which he wants to combine with spending cuts to reduce the deficit.

The newer wrinkle was the left's sharp criticism of his proposals to slow the growth in Medicare and Social Security benefits, provided Republicans agree to new revenues. Obama has offered Republicans such a deal before. But this month's budget proposal gave it a new imprimatur.

The group MoveOn.org said Wednesday that supporters "who are outraged at President Obama's proposal to cut Social Security benefits will protest and deliver petitions" this week.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, a liberal independent from Vermont, is leading a similar petition drive, opposing "any benefit cuts to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid." The deficit, his letter says, "was primarily caused during the Bush years by two unpaid-for wars, huge tax breaks for the rich and a prescription drug program" for Medicare, funded through borrowing. He suggests that higher taxes on the wealthy are the fairest way to tackle the deficit.

Democrats cite several reasons to raise taxes on high-income households. Obama campaigned for such tax increases in 2008 and 2012 but accomplished them only partially with the "fiscal cliff" resolution of Jan. 1.

Major tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 played big roles in turning a federal budget surplus into soaring deficits, according to research by the Congressional Budget Office and others. And by many measures, the U.S. tax burden in near historic lows.

Households earning roughly the national median income paid, on average, 11.1 percent of their income in total federal taxes in 2009, the most recent year for such data. That's the lowest level in more than 30 years, the CBO says.

Nonetheless, House Republicans have placed their highest priority on refusing to raise income tax rates, effectively ranking it above all other goals.

"The president got his tax hikes on Jan. 1," House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, is fond of saying. It's a reference to the $620 billion in new revenues, over 10 years, that Republicans were unable to stop because of the "fiscal cliff" law, resolved on New Year's Day.

If it's easy to make a case for higher revenues, the same is true for slowing the growth of Social Security and Medicare benefits. For decades, studies have warned of approaching trouble in these popular but costly programs, as health care costs rise and baby boomers begin to retire.

"Both Medicare and Social Security cannot sustain projected long-run program costs under currently scheduled financing, and legislative modifications are necessary to avoid disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers," the Social Security Administration says, summarizing findings by the two programs' trustees.

"The early detection light has been going on for a while, and there has been a failure to act," Social Security trustee Charles P. Blahous recently told a House panel. If lawmakers are to preserve the programs for future retirees, he said, they will have to accept much more "political pain" than officials endured during a 1983 overhaul that included "several extremely controversial measures."

Obama has proposed an often-discussed step, which deals with government accounting in general, not just entitlement programs. If Congress agrees to higher tax revenues, the president said, he would back a slower growth calculation for cost-of-living increases for Social Security benefits, plus higher Medicare premiums for higher-income seniors.

Interest groups have criticized both ideas. AARP calls the slower cost-of-living formula a "harmful change," and urges seniors to oppose it.

American voters can largely blame themselves when Congress is more talk than action on deficit reduction. Americans routinely say they want a smaller federal debt, but not at the cost of programs they hold dear â including Social Security and Medicare.

A CBS News poll in March found that most Americans want to cut spending and raise taxes to reduce the deficit. But 4 in 5 oppose cuts to Social Security or Medicare. And two-thirds are unwilling to have their own taxes raised in the name of deficit reduction.

When Pew Research asked which was more important â reducing the national debt or keeping Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are now â the public sided with safeguarding the benefits programs, 53 percent to 36 percent.

The deficit-spending partisanship continued Wednesday. On a party-line vote, House Ways and Means Committee Republicans passed a bill to protect Social Security recipients and investors in Treasury bonds if the government hits its borrowing limit and can't pay all its bills later this year. Democrats say if the federal government starts reneging on any obligations â even if it pays bondholders â financial markets will lose faith and the economy will tank.

Some Democrats fear a lose-lose situation if they support Obama's proposals. First, they could be attacked from the left for tweaking the programs that many Democrats see as their party's greatest legacy. And second, Republicans might accuse them of "raiding Medicare" in next year's congressional elections. That battle cry proved effective in 2010 after Obama's health care overhaul bill was passed.

Democrats call such tactics shamelessly hypocritical. Republicans, they note, have long called for reining in entitlement spending.

Boehner rebuked a top GOP campaign figure for hinting at a renewal of the "raiding Medicare" attacks. But Reince Priebus, the national Republican Party chairman, seemed eager to revive the question of whether Democratic trims to Medicare's costs amount to an unfair cut in benefits.

9. Read the AP article âDems, GOP talk up deficit reduction, but don't act (Links to an external site.)â by C. Babington (Apr25â13).

a. What are the two basic ways of shrinking a budget deficit?

b. Which of your answers above are Republicans vehemently against? What are the potential negative economic effects of implementing this basic policy?

c. Which of your answers above are Democrats strongly opposed to? What are the potential negative economic effects of implementing this basic policy?

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6. Though political pundits on television and radio inform the public, they also have to be concerned with

a. Entertainment value to increase their ratings.b. All of these.c. Making their audiences feel better about America.d. Being factually correct.

7. Social movements have been important sources of social, political, and economic change in the United States.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

8. A double standard exists on the part of advocacy organizations because issues facing advantaged subgroups get more attention than those facing disadvantaged subgroups.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

9. Contemporary political observers echo the two views of de Tocqueville and Madison in how they view the role of political groups.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

10. A national advocacy organization is an interest group

a. That only represents businesses.b. That informally represents broad groups of Americans who have similar interests.c. That represents all Americans whether they are powerful or not.d. That only represents minorities or people with less power in society.

11. The American people believe that justices on the US Supreme Court

a. None of these.b. Should be appointed for life.c. Should be elected and only for a 10-year term.d. Should be elected for life.

12. Regional, cultural, religious, occupational, and ethnic diversity all tend to increase the formation of political groups and social movements.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

13. In the United States, political parties are

a. Relatively rareb. Are a relatively accidental feature of the American historyc. None of thesed. Mentioned in the Constitution

14. Why are interest groups, political organiztions, and social movements so numerous in the US?

a. All of these.b. Because federalism and the separation of powers have created multiple points of access to political institutions.c. Because of the 1st Amendment, which protects speech. association, and the right to petition the government for redress of grievances.d. Because the way people are elected to Congress does not do a very good job of representing minorities, who have to find other ways of getting their needs met.

15. What is the margin of error for a sample of 1000 voters?

a. Plus or minus 3%.b. Plus or minus 1%c. Plus or minus 5%d. Plus or minus 2%

16. E.E. Schactschneider says about the interest groups that claim to work for poor people

a. That they may be making things worse for these people.b. That they do a good job even without handing out small benefits to attract people to their group.c. None of these.d. That they are able to accomplish a great deal even though the poor do not join those groups.

17. Why do the campaign staffs of presidential candidates pass up large states like California and Texas to concentrate on smaller states like New Mexico or Ohio?

a. The large states are just a few and there are more votes altogether in the small states.b. It is easier to persuade people in the small states.c. The large states are reliably red or blue, so the campaigns go after states where the vote is closer and they can take all of the votes even with a small win.d. The large states are just too expensive for campaigning.

18. Jackson notes that equality is generally defined as

a. Equality of process.b. Equality of opportunity.c. Equality of outcomes.d. Equality of results.

19. In an open primary, the voter can choose which primary election--Democratic or Republican--he or she would like to vote in.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

20. The womenâs movement can be very active on an issue such as affirmative action in higher education, which afffects their more affluent members, but overlook welfare reform, an important issue for their more disadvantaged or marginalized members.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

21. It is sometimes called "first-past-the-post" and sometimes "winner-take-all," but this kind of election means

a. No matter how many votes are cast and how many candidates the one with the most votes wins.b. None of these.c. The candidates have to have run-off elections until one wins two thirds of the votes.d. The top two candidates have to have a run off election.

22. Public opinion matters because in a democratic system we believe that government policy should follow the public will.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

23. With regard to ideology, Americans

a. Tend to identify with a party by their mid 20s.b. Tend to choose a political affiliation early in life.c. Tend to stay identified with a political party consistently the rest of their lives.d. All of these.

24. Alexis de Tocqueville

a. Found few religious associations in America.b. Wrote at the time of the American revolution in the 1780s.c. Wrote his great book Democracy in America at a time when Americans were forming many interest groups and associations in the 1830s.d. Was appalled at the number of commercial and manufacturing associations he found in America.

25. According to Strolovitch, in judging the effectiveness of an advocacy organization which claims to represent the marginalized,what are the guiding questions we should ask?

a. How active for the intersectionally marginalized are they? Because without that the organization is a failure.b. What coalitions do they form? Because coalitions are the key to success.c. What institutions do they target and what coalitions do they form? Because the political activity is the most important barometer.d. How active for the intersectionally marginalizedn are they, what institutions do they target, and what coalitions do they form?

26. How do the two dominant political parties prevent minor parties from emerging?

a. By using their vast funds and media resources to disparage minor party candidates.b. By refusing to give successful third party candidates leadership positions in the legislature.c. By poaching popular third party candidates before they begin to help their party.d. By manipulating election rules in debates and public funding to discriminate against the minor parties.

27. Since 1836, the republic has been dominated by how many political parties at a time?

a. Threeb. Fivec. Oned. Two

28. As sample size increases, the margin of error

a. Is greater than or equal to the margin of error.b. Stays the same.c. Decreases.d. Increases.

29. Affirmative advocacy

a. Looks for over-represented and under-represented issues in setting the agenda for activityb. Actively seeks out coalitions and works with others at the state and local levelc. All of thesed. Has a proactive agenda

30. The cell-phone only population is likely to include more young people, which pollsters have to take into account

a. TRUEb. FALSE

31. One method that schools use to politically socialize young people is

a. Ask students to watch TV news.b. Tell students who to vote for.c. Ask student to participate in mock elections.d. Ask students to read newspapers.

32. In addition to the legislative branch, advocacy groups target the executive and judicial branches.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

33. The problem with opt-in internet panels is that

a. Participants self-select, leaving out significant sections of the public.b. All of these.c. They have a greater margin of error.d. They do not use scientific methods.

34. An example of an organization which claims to represent a large demographic group is

a. The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP).b. All of these.c. The Japanese American Citizen's Leagues (JACL).d. The National Organization of Women (NOW).

35. Conservative and liberal ideologies differ mostly on

a. Campaign finance reform.b. Defense policy only.c. Economic and social issues.d. Civil rights.

36. Despite the fears of some that advocates for marginalized groups appeal to the courts too much, evidence shows that they in fact use the courts reluctantly and as a last resort.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

37. Are Americans more likely to vote in presidential elections than other types of elections?

a. No, Americans like to vote for direct democracy issues rather than indirect democracy representation.b. Yes, consistently American participate in presidential elections over other elections.c. Only in years when the presidential election is particularly interesting.d. No, because Americans are more interested in local issues.

38. The key way in which political parties enable democracy is

a. They stimulate interest among members of the mass publicb. All of thesec. They keep elected officials responsived. They allow a broader spectrum of participants to become involved in politics

39. In democracies around the world, multi-party systems are much more common and one sees small parties that advocate for one issue, one religion, or one demographic group.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

40. Poll results vary based on

a. Whether the method used was approved by the Census Bureau.b. Mean, median, and mode.c. Survey mode, sample size, and population definition.d. The statistical application of the Weights and Measures Bureauâs guidelines.

41. Voters who like a third party are nevertheless inclined to vote for a dominant party candidate for fear they will waste their votes.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

42. National organizations that file amicus curiae briefs are targeting

a. The Congress.b. The courts.c. The presidency.d. The Federal Reserve Bank.

43. Small racial, ethnic, or religious groups in the US

a. Don't have quotas for seats in the schools or government as they do in India.b. Do not have a party which is dedicated to their interests.c. Do not have legislative representation as is the cases in other countries with proportional representation.d. All of these.

44. When is the candidate's website NOT a good source of information?

a. To find more information about the candidate's biography.b. To find out more about the candidate's positions on the issues.c. To find an unbiased account of the candidate's voting history.d. To find out which prominent people and organizations support the candidate.

45. According to the "funnel of causality," party identification is more psychological than anything.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

46. The agencies which connect people to government are called "linkage mechanisms."

a. TRUEb. FALSE

47. Some theorists argue against the pluralists with a "rational actor" argument that says

a. That people are rational and want to maximize benefits and minimize effort, so they do not spend their time and resources to organize.b. That rational people always seek public goods.c. That it is rational to organize to acquire more public goods.d. That rational people really do not want the public goods as much as theorists think.

48. According to Jackson, the digital revolution has given us more information about the candidates,

a. And the candidates usually approve of the things written about them.b. And the information is usually quite accurate.c. But the information is not always accurate.d. But it is not very detailed.

49. Red states mean states that usually vote for the Democratic Party, while blue states mean those that are reliable for the Republican Party.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

50. According to Jackson, what is a core political value that nearly all Americans accept?

a. Equalityb. Democracyc. Libertyd. All of these

WRITE a one-sentence summary of each paragraph!

The False Income-Inequality Narrative

BY JASON L. RILEY

Published in the Wall Street Journal on Sept. 29, 2015

An enduring theme of the Democratic presidential race has been income inequality, coupled with an enduring belief that America's affluent reached their status at the expense of the poor and the middle class.

Bernie Sanders speaks of little else on the stump. And when not busy dissembling on her handling of email correspondence at the State Department, Hillary Clinton will tell you that the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top. If Joe Biden gets in, expect more of the same. The vice president is said to be contemplating a 2016 bid in large part because struggling middle-income families may have trouble relating to Mrs. Clinton on inequality given her high living since leaving the White House.

This theme, in any case, seems to resonate with voters, which is no huge shock in the sixth year of an economic recovery. Envy and resentment fuel class warfare and lackluster economic growth throughout the Obama presidency have made people less optimistic and more inclined to fault others for their circumstances. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll this week reports that four-in-five Americans âwere either angry because our political system seems to only be working for the insiders with money and power or anxious and uncertain. After all, the economy still feels rocky and unpredictable or both.

Liberals want to address income disparities through wealth redistribution by taking money from more productive people and giving it to the less productive in the name of fairness as the left defines it. They want to raise income taxes, expand the welfare state, lift minimum wages, and strengthen the bargaining power of unions. Mr. Sanders has been the most explicit about this, even going so far as to propose a wealth tax. Our economic goals have to be redistributing a significant amount of [wealth] back from the top 1%, the senator said in July.

In reality, the left has overstated the problem. And all the focus on divvying up existing wealth instead of creating more risks making matters far worse for the people they are trying to help and the country in general. To the extent that the expanding welfare state allows more people to live without working and therefore without earning income or developing their own human capitalâsupporters of the welfare state are contributing to the very income disparities they so much decry, writes economist Thomas Sowell in his new book, âWealth, Poverty and Politics.

Mr. Sowell is the author of more than 30 books over the past four decades, many having to do with what drives different social and economic outcomes among different groups in the U.S. and elsewhere. In his latest tome, he draws from this well of research to do what he has done so well for so long: question basic assumptions behind public policy and follow the facts where they lead him.

One common assumption is that proportionate or random outcomes are the natural order of things and that gaps or disparities are evidence of something wrong. In fact, huge disparities are the norm, not the exception, because the demographic, cultural, and political factors that influence the development of the human capital that makes people productive also tend to be unequal.

In 2013, only 9% of U.S. women with college degrees who gave birth were unmarried, versus 61% of women who were high-school dropouts and unmarried. Harvard's Robert Putnam reports that children from professional families will hear 19 million more words than their working-class peers before the first day of kindergarten.

These children don't have the same prospects. Equal opportunity, in the sense of being judged and rewarded by the same standards as others, cannot possibly mean equal life chances for children born and raised in these very different settings,writes Mr. Sowell. The fact that life is unfair is not the same as saying that a particular institution, or a particular society, is unfair.

The argument that social mobility is a thing of the past in the U.S. also is disputable. Longitudinal studies by the IRS and others that measure the progress of individuals over time show that the American dream is alive and well. One such paper, published by the Pew Charitable Trusts in 2012, measured whether a person has more or less income, earnings, or wealth than his or her parents did at the same age and concluded that the vast majority of Americans had higher incomes, while 50% had greater wealth.

In other studies, Pew has found generational stagnation but the authors have noted that it didn't apply to immigrants. If low-income immigrants can rise even when the native-born don't, writes Mr. Sowell, that strongly suggests that American society continues to offer opportunities to move up economically, but that not all groups make the same use of these opportunities.

Mr. Riley, a Manhattan Institute senior fellow and Journal contributor is the author of Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make It Harder for Blacks to Succeed (Encounter Books, 2014).

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GOV 310L Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Dont, Gerrymandering, Incumbent

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