GOV 312L Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Extortion, Homicide, Exit Strategy
Transition: From international war to civil war
• Peaceful end of Cold War and absence of great power war appears to prompting a
change in locus of war: from interstate to civil war
• Violence, death, and genocide from these conflicts of horrific scale
Great War of Africa, DRC, 1998-, 5+ million dead
Rwanda, 1994, 800,000 dead
Bosnia, 1992-1995, 100,000 dead
Liberian civil wars, 200,000(?) dead
• Today’s class: what role for the United States in influencing the course of these
conflicts?
What changes with the end of the Cold War?
• Post 1964: Cold War moves out of Europe and into periphery
Both United States and Soviet Union support many autocratic regimes with foreign aid
and military transfers
• End of Cold War brings end of American and Soviet support for these regimes
Absence of foreign support and diminished expectation of great power intervention
creates local incentives to challenge their rule
• Internal collapse of Soviet Union, prompted in part by nationalism, creates many
new states with mixed ethnic composition
Why does war occur?
• Bargaining model of war
An assumption: all wars costly
A puzzle: if all wars costly, then why can’t parties reach some peace settlement that
would leave all participants better off than fighting?
• Explanations for why wars occur should focus on why states fail to reach and/or
sustain this mutually beneficial settlement
Bargaining failures and war
• Two key explanations for bargaining failure to reach a political settlement
Private information coupled with incentives to misrepresent lead one side to offer
insufficient concessions; other side opts to try and secure greater division of issue
through war
Commitment problem: difficulties associated with contracting over time
The commitment problem
• Commitment problem: inability of side with rising power to promise or commit
to abide by the terms of any settlement indefinitely in the future
• Organizations fight if think adversary will demand (in the future) revisions to
terms of any pre-conflict settlement
Fight rather than face a future of repeated concessions through extortion
Concern that growing power will enable such demands for revision
• Often due to shifts in distribution of military power
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Document Summary
Great war of africa, drc, 1998-, 5+ million dead. What changes with the end of the cold war: post 1964: cold war moves out of europe and into periphery. Both united states and soviet union support many autocratic regimes with foreign aid and military transfers: end of cold war brings end of american and soviet support for these regimes. Absence of foreign support and diminished expectation of great power intervention creates local incentives to challenge their rule. Internal collapse of soviet union, prompted in part by nationalism, creates many new states with mixed ethnic composition. Why does war occur: bargaining model of war. Bargaining failures and war: two key explanations for bargaining failure to reach a political settlement. Private information coupled with incentives to misrepresent lead one side to offer insufficient concessions; other side opts to try and secure greater division of issue through war. Commitment problem: difficulties associated with contracting over time.
