GOV 312L Lecture Notes - Lecture 15: Mutual Assured Destruction, Nuclear Umbrella, Total War
Module 15: Nuclear Weapons and U.S. Foreign Policy
The Concept of Deterrence
• Deterrence: To discourage attack through the threat of retaliation. “If you attack
me, I may not be able to prevent your attack, but I can retaliate so powerfully that
you will not want to attack in the first place.”
Total War and Mutually Assured Destruction
• Clauswitz and the concept of Total War
Mutually Assured Destruction
Necessity of second strike capability
• Total war: “States would become the victims of war if weapons ever became so
destructive that they placed at risk the purposes for which wars were being
fought. Any resort to force, under such circumstances, could destroy what it was
meant to defend”
• Churchill: “The new terror brings a certain element of equality in annihilation.
Strange as it may seem, it is to the universality of potential destruction that I think
we may look with hope and even confidence”
The Central Problem of Credibility
• Stability in a nuclear world depends on credibility of coercive threats i.e. does
your adversary believe you will execute them?
• Credibility challenges:
Do you have the will (resolve) to execute these threats?
Do you have the capability to execute these threats?
Alliance complications: will you surrender your own cities to execute these threats?
How Demonstrate Credibility?
• Capabilities
o Some weapons systems vulnerable, could undermine deterrence if
destroyed in first strike
o Less of a problem with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and
submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)
• Demonstrating Resolve with Irrevocable Commitments
o Public statements in democracies that would be politically costly to
reverse
o The threat that leaves something to chance
• The challenges of protecting allies with extended deterrence
o Cold War: US protects Western Europe from invasion by Soviets with
nuclear umbrella
▪ But…will US trade NYC to protect Paris?
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Module 15: nuclear weapons and u. s. foreign policy. The concept of deterrence: deterrence: to discourage attack through the threat of retaliation. If you attack me, i may not be able to prevent your attack, but i can retaliate so powerfully that you will not want to attack in the first place. Total war and mutually assured destruction: clauswitz and the concept of total war. Necessity of second strike capability: total war: states would become the victims of war if weapons ever became so destructive that they placed at risk the purposes for which wars were being fought. Any resort to force, under such circumstances, could destroy what it was meant to defend : churchill: the new terror brings a certain element of equality in annihilation. Strange as it may seem, it is to the universality of potential destruction that i think we may look with hope and even confidence .
