EPPS 2302 Lecture Notes - Lecture 17: Almost Surely, Sample Space, Conditional Probability
23 Feb 2016
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Document Summary
Random - outcomes are uncertain, regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. Probability - outcome of a chance is proportion of times the outcome would occur in a long series of repetitions. Myth of short run regularity - randomness is predictable in the long run, but not in the short run. Law of averages - random behavior evens out in the long run. Future cannot be affected by the past and influence the likelihood of an event in the future. Law of large numbers - as a number repeats, probability experiment increases. Proportion with outcome is observed and gets closer to the probability of the outcome. Impossible - event probability is 0, certain = 1, unusual = low probability. Probability model - sample space, s, chance process, set of all possible outcomes. Probability model - description of chance that consists of 2 parts, sample space and probability.
