POLI SCI 104 Lecture 11: Poli Sci 104 week 7, 1
7 Jan 2019
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Document Summary
Diplomatic crisis over reports that saudi government murdered dissent journalist (and us resident) jamal kashoggi. Trump (and kushner) have bet heavily on improved relations with saudi arabia de facto leader, crown prince mohammad bin salman. Trump"s statements have been inconsistent from accepting denials and expressing little concern to threats of severe punishment if continued. Federal judge dismissed storm daniel"s defamation lawsuit against trump holding that his total con job remark was a rhetorical hyperbole. Patter: president"s part almost always loses house seats in midterm elections. General ballot (democrats + 7 to 10) Seat by seat forecast (538 model: democrats + 19 to 63 seats) Retirements (40 republicans, 10 democrats though that number varies depending on reason) Presidential approval (losses typically higher for president <50%) All forecast are probabilistic and people are terrible at assessing probabilistic. We can discuss the traditional (and scholarships) of the presidency, and we will.
