POLI SCI 140 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Mutual Assured Destruction, Vladimir Putin, Rationality
9 Feb 2018
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All bargaining/deterrence arguments based on rationality assumption. Power is at the most when you have so much you don"t have to use it. Deterrence the policy of persuading an adversary through the threat of military action, that the costs of an action will outweigh the benefits (huth 1988) Elements: adversary, threat, cost, benefits, action. Cost benefit calculations: p(win) x benefit > cost. Deterrence is not just about creating costs: yes create a cost. Most try to manipulate cost: p(win) x benefit > cost. Threat: if you do something, i"ll punish you Problem: punishment must be costly to the threatened. Why: what you are threatening to do has to be costly to you as well, it also has to be credible, create strong incentive to bluff! Strategies of deterring an adversary: create self-punishment through audience cost, convince others of irrationality, cutting off options, note: generally, it is believed that deterrence is easier than compliance, irrational, crazy you.
