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15 Mar 2019

Recent productivity acceleration has been

  • positively influenced by information technology because it has enabled us to install cameras everywhere.
  • negatively influenced by information technology because it has required security to protect information systems.
  • negatively influenced by information technology because it has increased costs for firms needing technology.
  • positively influenced by information technology because it connects information in all parts of the world with information seekers.

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Related questions

What do you believe is the ultimate impact of technology on job creation? Should there be curbs to the pace of modernization?

(Answer in a paragraph(around 200 words))

What Econ 101 Can Teach Us About Artificial Intelligence

Here's why advancing technology often leads to more jobs for humans, not fewer

A Tesla Model X 75D semi-autonomous electric vehicle is parked at the Governor's Mansion in Olympia, Wash., this year. Goldman Sachs predicts that 25 years from now, driver employment will be growing by 300,000 less per year because of autonomous vehicles.

By Greg Ip

Aug 9, 2017

The first chart you draw in Economics 101 is the downward-sloping demand curve. It shows that when the price of something drops, people consume more of it.

This elementary rule of economics is remarkably helpful in discussing the effects of technological change. As I wrote last week, when technology makes something cheaper, we consume more of it, often by finding new uses. This lesson repeats through history: When coal-fueled steam power became more efficient in the 1800s, demand for steam power and coal spread. When automated teller machines made it cheaper to operate bank branches in the 1980s, banks opened more branches.

My column cites spreadsheet programs like Lotus 1-2-3, whose arrival in the early 1980s made repetitive recalculation vastly simpler and faster. This reduced demand for bookkeepers but created more demand for people who could run numbers in new and interesting ways, such as accountants and management consultants.

In a recent article for the Harvard Business Review, Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and Avi Goldfarb, economists at the University of Toronto who study artificial intelligence, say that in the 1990s, economists didn’t buy into the hype that the internet and the World Wide Web would upend everything:

“It wasn’t that we didn’t recognize that something changed. It was that we recognized that the old economics lens remained useful for looking at the changes taking place. The economics of the ‘New Economy’ could be described at a high level: Digital technology would cause a reduction in the cost of search and communication. This would lead to more search, more communication, and more activities that go together with search and communication. That’s essentially what happened.”

They apply that lesson to artificial intelligence and more specifically to machine learning, the use of powerful algorithms to make predictions from patterns in large quantities of data. Machine learning, they say, means many problems will be reframed as prediction problems. Autonomous driving no longer involves programming the car to respond in a certain way to a variety of controlled scenarios, but instead, to watch what humans actually do and then respond the same way.

How does this affect jobs? The authors says it depends on whether the technology competes with or complements what you do. Spreadsheets competed with what bookkeepers do (record keeping and calculation) and thus made them less valuable, but complemented what accountants and consultants do (analysis), and made them more valuable.

Mssrs. Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb say that AI reduces the value of those who predict things for a living, such as whether a mark on an X-ray is a tumor, but it raises the value of those who use predictions to make judgments:

“When prediction is cheap, diagnosis will be more frequent and convenient, and thus we’ll detect many more early-stage, treatable conditions. This will mean more decisions will be made about

medical treatment, which means greater demand for the application of ethics, and for emotional support, which are provided by humans.”

So AI will create winners and losers within and among industries and occupations. But what will the net effect be? More jobs or less, and for whom? This isn’t knowable, but history suggests that while a specific occupation or industry may suffer losses, the aggregate effects will be positive. The growth in accounting and analytical jobs since the early 1980s is much larger than the loss of bookkeeping jobs.

Nor did all those bookkeepers necessarily lose jobs; many probably became accountants or analysts. As Mr. Gans told me, bookkeepers may have been best placed to exploit the capabilities of spreadsheets: “If you were doing calculations all day as a bookkeeper, chances are you thought a bit about why you are doing that. When you got a spreadsheet, rather than doing one calculation per day you could do 10 to 50, so you had a better sense of what the [calculations] might say.”

Some readers said AI is a much bigger threat than spreadsheets because it has so many more potential applications—and they displace uniquely human abilities. I agree with the first part, less so with the second. I suspect workers in previous eras, whether they drove a horse and plow, handled a stock trade or connected a phone call, thought there was something about their job that a machine could never replace.

Will the disruptions this time around be greater? Maybe, but not necessarily. Goldman Sachs predicts that 25 years from now, driver employment will be growing by 300,000 less per year because of autonomous vehicles. That’s 25,000 jobs per month to make up, compared with the 5,000 per month that the decline in bookkeeping since 1985 represents. But it’s hardly insurmountable in a labor market where five million jobs are created and destroyed each month.

Others said I was ignoring the potential for rogue algorithms and robots to turn on us or strip us of our freedom.

The experts, of which I am not one, tell me AI is nowhere near that capability. (Before the robots can kill us they must first stop killing themselves.) And don’t assume spreadsheets have been all benign. Excel may not have slain anyone Terminator-style, but it did help wound J.P. Morgan through its role in the “London Whale” trading disaster.

Which brings me to the final point. We should not confuse what technology enables us to do with how much better off it makes us. Spreadsheets enabled analysts to construct much more intricate forecasts of stock prices and the economy, but didn’t make those forecasts any more accurate. AI may enable companies to better manage the risks of their products and actions, but those products and actions may not be more profitable. Many a CEO has wondered whether the money they spend on spreadsheet-wielding consultants yields any real value. Some day they may wonder the same thing about their AI-wielding consultants.

Today, in the United​ States, exports are about

A.

28 percent of GDP.

B.

90 percent of GDP.

C.

14 percent of GDP.

D.

4 percent of GDP.

Which of the following statements is​ FALSE?

A.

Sophisticated financial systems have given U.S. productive efficiency a boost.

B.

When it comes to overall productive​ efficiency, compared to​ Japan, Germany and the rest of the European​ Union, the United States lags far behind.

C.

Economic restructuring and investments in information technology have added to productive efficiency in the United States.

D.

The United​ States' international competitive position has been helped by its long history of widespread entrepreneurship.

One problem with the infant industry argument is that

A.

it fails to protect domestic industries from foreign competition.

B.

it must be approved by the Federal Reserve Board.

C.

it must be approved by the IMF and the World Bank.

D.

the protection is typically never​ removed, creating a domestic monopoly.

When a tariff is​ imposed, the supply curve for the imported good

A.

shifts upward and to the left.

B.

shifts downward and to the right.

C.

becomes perfectly inelastic.

D.

does not change.

The WTO replaced the GATT in

A.

1900.

B.

1995.

C.

1960.

D.

1945.

The World Trade Organization

A.

increases world trade by providing interest rate subsidies to foreign borrowers who buy U.S. exports on credit.

B.

was established to settle trade disputes within the European Union.

C.

was established to resolve disputes arising under world trade rules.

D.

is another name for the IMF.

Trade deflection is an act that

A.

has no impact on the amount of international trade in the world.

B.

is illegal among all countries in the world.

C.

decreases the amount of international trade in the world.

D.

increases the amount of international trade in the world.

The Number of Worker Days to Produce One Cuckoo Clock or Movie Using All Available Resources

Product

 United States

​ (Workerminus−​Days)

 Switzerland

​ (Workerminus−​Days)

Cuckoo Clocks

8

6

Movies

12

4

Refer to the above table. Assuming constant opportunity​ costs, which of the of the following statements is correct if the rate of exchange is 1 movie for 1 cuckoo clock.

A.

U.S. residents will gain from exporting movies and Swiss residents will gain from exporting cuckoo clocks at a rate of exchange.

B.

U.S. residents would be willing to export cuckoo​ clocks, but Swiss residents would not gain from exporting movies at this rate of exchange.

C.

Swiss residents would be willing to export​ movies, but U.S. residents would not gain from exporting cuckoo clocks at this rate of exchange.

D.

U.S. residents will gain from exporting cuckoo clocks and Swiss residents will gain from exporting movies at a rate of exchange.

The balance of payments is

A.

a summary record of a​ country's purchases and sales of goods and services in the world market.

B.

a summary record of a​ country's economic transactions with foreign residents and governments.

C.

the value of goods and services bought and sold in the world market.

D.

the value of merchandise goods bought and sold in the world market.

You have just become the manager of an assisted living facility for elderly but ambulatory (able to move without assistance) clients. You have me to the conclusion that you need a new facility. The building you are is a converted hotel built in the 1960s and it no longer a viable platform to effectively support you mission and serve a geriatric population. In addition to needing rooms, dining facility, a medical clinic (with 24 hour staff), a hair solon, technology lab, game room (pool, vintage games , ect) movie theater and pool a new requirement has been identified by the industry and that is feline and K-9 staff. This special staff would consist of a few dogs and cats living in the new facility with the over 300 clients. Note animal staff should not be isolated but can be restricted to certain parts of the facility.

You need to locate a building anywhere in the US but consider that we dont want our clients to get sick because of cold winters. Also excessive heat may be a problem. There are no specific cost constraints but all of the specified criteria must be met or a close as you can. Remember that where there is more than one floor clients will need multiple elevators and visitors must have elevators. Also consider the extensive safety apparatus for the elderly to move and bathe. Lastly there must be room for Huv-a-rounds and all types of wheel cha (see these are target for folks who can't walk easily).

As you prepare to answer this question insure you prioritized the specialized criteria above. Also determine whether you want to use generic criteria. Note the more requirements included in your recommendation for a new facility the higher your score. When you locate a new facility online insure that the URL and a description matching some or a the attributes described above are included. Its fine to pick one that is already assisted living BUT these will have to be very close to perfect in meeting specified criteria.

You can answer this question in one page. An introduction with background, the actual selection and detailed description and of course tell me why.

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