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A financial crisis broke out in 1997 in a number of Asian economies. As a result, international investors pulled their funds out of Asia, and moved them into mostly the United States. Using the large open economy model that we learned in class, analyze the impact of this policy on U.S. interest rates, real exchange rate, and trade balance.

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Related questions

Question 32

  1. Tim, a citizen of the United States living in Virginia, buys a computer that was made in South Korea by a Japanese firm. This transaction would affect the GDP of the United States in which way?

    Net exports would decrease and GDP would decrease.

    Net exports would decrease and GDP would be unaffected.

    Net exports would increase and GDP would increase.

    Net exports would increase and consumption would increase.

1 points

Question 33

  1. An increase in U.S. government spending tends to

    increase U.S. interest rates and increase the U.S. capital account surplus.

    increase U.S. interest rates and decrease the U.S. capital account surplus.

    decrease U.S. interest rates and increase the U.S. capital account surplus.

    decrease U.S. interest rates and decrease the U.S. capital account surplus.

1 points

Question 34

  1. A _______ is a system in which the government intervenes extensively in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate within certain bounds.

    dirty float

    floating exchange rate

    fixed exchange rate

    dollarization

1 points

Question 35

  1. Suppose the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar is E0.5 to $1. If a Big Mac costs $3 in the United States and E1.5 in Germany, then the real exchange rate is

    1:1.

    2:1.

    1:2.

    It cannot be determined from this information.

1 points

Question 36

  1. Which of the following prevent the purchasing power parity theorem from holding perfectly?

    transportation costs

    goods that cannot be shipped

    tariffs and quotas

    Each of these answers is correct.

1 points

Question 37

  1. Fiscal policy is more effective in affecting economic activity if

    many resources are unemployed.

    there is a real shock instead of an aggregate demand shock.

    the economy returns to the long-run condition almost immediately.

    there is a long implementation lag.

1 points

Question 38

  1. In a typical year, changes in government spending compared to overall spending are relatively

    small.

    large.

    unpredictable.

    well-timed.

1 points

Question 39

  1. Which statement is TRUE about the difference between monetary and fiscal policy?

    Fiscal policy can quickly adjust to changes in aggregate demand.

    Fiscal policy can have a more direct impact.

    Monetary policy is subject to many long lags.

    Monetary policy can affect the economy regardless of the actions banks take.

1 points

Question 40

  1. Fiscal policies that help an economy in a recession without additional actions by policy makers are called

    consumption smoothers.

    Ricardian equalizers.

    automatic stabilizers.

    Each of these answers is correct.

1 points

Question 41

  1. The U.S. individual income tax system can best be described as a

    regressive tax system.

    flat tax system.

    zero tax system.

    progressive tax system.

1 points

Question 42

  1. What demographic change in the United States will cause government spending to increase in the next 50 years?

    The population over 65 will grow.

    The population will be younger.

    Women will have fewer children.

    Immigration will increase.

1 points

Question 43

  1. What kind of rising costs will mostly cause U.S. government spending to skyrocket in the future?

    defense

    environmental protection

    education

    health care

1 points

Question 47

  1. The Fed could have popped the bubble of the housing boom in the 2000s by

    lending directly to homeowners.

    regulating the stock markets more.

    reducing the growth rate of the money supply.

    doing nothing.

1 points

Question 48

  1. Which of the following would be an example of running monetary policy by rules?

    A 5 percent increase in money supply automatically leads to a 2 percent increase in real GDP.

    An increase in money supply automatically leads to an increase in inflation.

    The Fed will increase money growth to different levels, depending on the severity of the recession.

    A 1 percent drop in real GDP will automatically elicit a 2 percent increase in money supply.

    Question 50

    Moral hazard occurs when

    the failure of one financial institution can bring down other institutions as well.

    financial institutions take on too much risk because they are insured.

    financial institutions become insolvent because they issued too many loans.

    there are more short-term liabilities than short-term assets.

    Which of the following is NOT a transmission mechanism?

    reductions in the money supply

    intertemporal substitution

    uncertainty

    sticky wages and prices

    Question 56

    For a given increase in government spending growth, intertemporal substitution is more widespread when

    the impact of AD growth on both inflation and real GDP growth is stronger.

    the impact of AD growth on both inflation and real GDP growth is weaker.

    the impact of AD growth on inflation is stronger and the impact of the AD growth on real GDP growth is weaker.

    the impact of AD growth on inflation is weaker and the impact of AD growth on real GDP growth is stronger.

    Stalin:

    instituted democratic reforms, leading to widespread prosperity.

    took government control of the farms in Ukraine, leading to the starvation of millions of people.

    increased the provision of public goods, which had a positive effect on lowering the unemployment rate.

    tried unsuccessfully to expand voting rights in 1924 Russia.

    1 points

    Question 60

    1 points

    Question 59

    If voters care about two issues such as taxes and war, then politicians:

    will form a stable policy on these issues.

    can pose a policy that will never lose against another policy.

    must assume that there is no median voter.

    may never converge on a stable outcome.

    1 points

    Question 58

    Policy A adversely affects 50 million people at a cost of $1 per person. But Policy A also benefits 1,000 people at $30,000 per person. Which of the following statements is true?

    Policy A will not become law because it hurts more people than it helps.

    Policy A concentrates all the costs among a small group of people and all the benefits among a large group of people.

    Policy A is likely to be supported by politicians even though it makes society worse off.

    Since Policy A negatively affects many people, and so rational ignorance will not be a problem.

    1 points

    Question 57

    Data for the United States show that the incumbent party tends to win the election if:
    I. personal disposable income is growing.
    II. the inflation rate is low.
    III. the political party has not been in power for too many continuous terms.

    I only

    I and II only

    I and III only

    I, II, and III

    1 points

    Question 53

    1 points

    Question 52

    What is the purpose of the Fed's structure?

    to give the President of the United States as many tools as possible to regulate the economy

    to make sure all states are given equal access to monetary policy decisions

    to keep the private sector out of the monetary policy making arena

    to keep the power of the Fed dispersed

    1 points

    Question 51

    An increase in money growth will cause inflation to increase in

    the short run only.

    the long run only.

    both the short run and the long run.

    neither the short run nor the long run.

*Article*

The U.S. economy is revving up just as Europe and other major economies lose steam, jeopardizing a rare period in which the world’s largest economies have been accelerating in unison.

The European Central Bank on Thursday took another step toward ending the massive stimulus measures it has used in an effort to boost growth since 2015. But ECB officials also said they would hold interest rates steady through summer next year, a sign that they felt the eurozone economy remains fragile.

In an indication of growing economic vigor in the U.S., the Federal Reserve on Wednesday tapped the brakes again, raising the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point and signaling it may quicken the pace of future rate increases because of a strengthening economy and tightening labor markets.

The economies’ diverging paths were expressed most prominently in the euro, which on Thursday suffered its worst day against the dollar in two years. The euro lost 1.88% against the U.S. currency, its biggest drop since the day after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union.

The central bank announcements over the past two days offered the latest evidence that heady growth expectations for Europe and other major economies outside the U.S. might not be achieved, defying analysts who began the year convinced that the world economy’s first synchronized expansion in years would continue.

The International Monetary Fund said in January that the world’s seven largest economies each grew more than 1.5% in 2017, and it predicted more solid growth this year. Global manufacturing was booming and the IHS Markit global purchasing managers index that month was its strongest in nearly seven years.

Many investors counted on a revitalized Europe to lead that growth in 2018. But recent labor strikes in France, political turmoil in Italy and softer economic data are causing investors to rethink that premise. Germany last week reported that factory orders dropped 2.5% in April, while eurozone growth was 0.4% in the first quarter, down from 0.7% in the final quarter of 2017. On Thursday, the ECB revised down its eurozone growth expectations for this year to 2.1%, from 2.4%.

“When we look at Europe, the very strong momentum we saw in data last year has been waning this year,” said Holly MacDonald, chief investment strategist at Bessemer Trust.

Europe isn’t the only region to show signs of cooling down. The People’s Bank of China this week also left a suite of key short-term interest rates unchanged. New data showed business activity, including investment and retail sales, slowed in May, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy is facing growing headwinds.

The disappointing figures “warranted China to take a cautious tone,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at OCBC Bank.

In the U.S., meanwhile, recent data suggest an economic expansion that just became the second-longest in the nation’s history is accelerating, rather than slowing down.

The U.S. economy grew modestly over the winter—at a 2.2% annual rate in January through March—but seems to be ramping up further this spring. Growth is on track to exceed a 4% pace in the three months ending in June, which would be the fastest of any quarter in almost four years.

Spending at U.S. retailers soared 0.8% in May, the biggest jump in six months, according to U.S. government data released on Thursday. Consumers, spurred by tax cuts and the lowest unemployment in half a century, shelled out more for cars, clothing, building supplies, health products and bar tabs.

“We may be entering a new level of consumer spending right now,” said economist Robert Frick of the Navy Federal Credit Union. He pointed out that more and more blue-collar workers are finding work as the labor expansion endures, and those workers tend to spend a greater portion of their incomes, out of necessity, than higher-income workers, who save more.

He added that low unemployment, strong consumer spending and modest inflation are likely to keep the economy on strong footing this year: “We’re in a Goldilocks zone right now.”

In the eurozone, rates have stayed pegged at negative levels—now at minus 0.4%—since 2014. Despite some initial concerns, investors have become more relaxed about possible unintended effects of negative rates on the economy.

On Thursday, investors reacted to the ECB’s announcement to end bond purchases while keeping rates low longer by selling the euro and bidding up stocks. It is the latest example of interest-rate moves returning to the driver’s seat of monetary policy. In the wake of the financial crisis, central bankers rolled out a raft of unprecedented and complex measures, including bond buying and lending facilities for banks, pitching them as a way to lower long-term borrowing costs at a time when short-term rates could go no lower.

Not all investors are ready to write off Europe’s growth prospects. Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at ?Société Générale, believes that lackluster economic data in the first quarter is a “temporary soft patch,” and that “fundamentals remain very solid for eurozone growth,” whereas he expects the U.S. economy to go into a recession around 2020.

Others believe the euro will continue to weaken further this year, but think that markets are swinging too far in favor of U.S. growth.

Next year, “we expect the euro to rebound against the dollar even if the ECB only hikes late in the year,” said Ingvild Borgen Gjerde, an analyst at Capital Economics. “We think the Fed’s tightening cycle will come to an end in mid-2019, far sooner than is discounted in the markets.”

*question*

4. Should a goal of monetary policymakers be to raise the value of its currency? How would a currency appreciate both help and hurt an economy? If a central bank wants to appreciate its currency, how in practice would it do so?

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nation’s spending amount which increases the economy’s deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. That’s what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that “you can’t be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneously—at least I can’t see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.” He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesn’t agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesn’t change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates aren’t declining meaning investment wouldn’t continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states “Most spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.” He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soro’s point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states “The other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.” He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: “But when you have a collapse of credit there’s only one source of credit that is still credible, and that’s the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.” I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugman’s IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugman’s points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

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