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4 Jun 2018

Assume that you are the hedge fund portfolio manager and are starting a new fund. You have received $1 million to invest in a portfolio of derivatives. You should invest at least 20% in each of options, futures, and derivatives. No one position may comprise more than 10% of your portfolio. For each derivative instrument included in the portfolio, assess the risk of that instrument. In other words, identify and examine what could go right and wrong with this instrument. Discuss scenarios where this instrument does very well in the investment environment and scenarios where this instrument will not perform well. Discuss also the potential returns of each instrument: what is the potential return under optimal conditions and potential losses under worst case scenarios. Finally, discuss how you plan to allocate your cash in your portfolio and whether you plan to use strategies based on leverage, shorting, or reverse repurchase agreements.

1. Chose an index of potential derivatives instruments to include in portfolio.

2. Write a short discussion of each instrument and the potential

3. Discuss each instruments and potential losses.

4. Discuss the performance of instruments Please be more specific! Thank you in advance!

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Patrina Schowalter
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4 Jun 2018

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Derivative

Vanguard High Yield Corporate Fund
Materials
• Website information (23/05/2016)
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0029&FundIntExt=INT
• Summary Prospectus (27/05/2015)
• Prospectus (27/05/2015)
Anakin’s Job
In May 2016, Anakin leaves his job in Hollywood and returned to the finance industry. It is his
first love after all and the industry appears to be picking up again after the credit crunch of
2007-2008. He applies to be the risk analyst to the fund manager of the Vanguard High Yield
Corporate Fund as his quantitative training positions him well for a job that requires ever more
numerical and computational skills over the years. His solid background in applied analytics
in business management and humble demeanour help him clinch the post without much
difficulty.
The Vanguard Group is an American investment company that has approximately USD 3
trillion in asset-under-management. It is founded in 1975 by John Bogle who created the first
index fund (tied to the S&P 500 index) in the process. After an initial lull, the index grew
rapidly along with the bull market of the 1980s. The Group has since added various financial
services and products to its core business, particularly the ETFs.
Anakin is tasked by the fund manager to become thoroughly familiar with the structure of the
fund as is documented by files provided under “Materials”. After that, he is to assess the
exposure of the High Yield Corporate Fund to risks in the market. He seeks the opinion of
Darth who is a veteran market analyst with the Vanguard Guard group for over 20 years.
Outlook
Darth has this to say about the economy and fixed income market:
" The US economy is improving steadily. It will not be long before the Fed decides to raise
interest rates. Once the Fed restarts the regime of rising rates, it will about 2 years for the yield
curve to rise by 100 basis points.
Consequently, in the more stringent economic environment, companies of lower credit
qualities, namely those of Caa and below, are expected to have their credit standing further
eroded. There is a 25% chance that a Caa-rated issuer may go into default and another 25%
chance that it may be downgraded to C.
The Greek debt problem, though much stabilized than before, is still a matter of grave concern
for the Eurozone. Expect the euro to depreciate against the dollar over the course of the next 6
months. A fall of 500 pips will not be a surprise. "
Assume Anakins’ role and answer the following questions. Questions 1 and 2 concern the
Financial Environment. The Environment at large provides the context and sets the constraints
within which financial decisions are weighed and taken. Questions 3 and 4 pertain to the task
that Anakin needs to complete.

Question 1
Describe the types of mutual funds that can be found in the market in a concise and systematic
manner, suitable for presenting to a group of investors who are high net worth and impatient.
(25 marks)
Question 2
Collect data (e.g. from the internet and/or Eikon) to plot the term structures of bond yields.
Each term structure describes the state of the fixed income market for bonds of the credit quality
corresponding to that curve. The different term structures span the space of bonds across credit
qualities and maturities.
Analyse the states of these markets relative to the shape of the curves. Compare and contrast
your analysis with current market views.
Explain your steps, present your answers and quote your sources clearly.
(25 marks)
Question 3
To better understand the structure of the fund, answer the following questions:
(a) Describe the composition of the fund.
(b) What are the risks faced by the fund according to the prospectus? Analyse the nature of
the portfolio risk accordingly and comment on whether commodity price risk and equity
price risk matter to the fund management.
(c) Discuss the performance of the fund based on the financial numbers provided.
(d) Assess the quality of the management of the fund.
(25 marks)
Question 4
The fund is affected by changes in the financial markets. When interest rates rise, the value of
the portfolio falls. Occurrences that are flagged by the rating agency to be credit events can
result in the downgrading of credit rating of bond issuers. Bonds that denominated in foreign
currency are affected by fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
(a) Analyse generally the need for hedging the various market risks for the fund.

Take into account Darth’s outlook. Address some of these risk concerns by answering the
following question:
(b) Suppose that in the coming 2 years, the prevailing interest rates are expected to go up
by 100 basis points and you are concerned. Show how you could hedge away the
interest rate risk by using an interest rate swap, assuming that the fund by may
represented by a single 5-year par bond on the $18.4 billion net assets with semi-annual
5% coupon payments starting from the current date.
In your explanation, you may assume a scenario in which a flat yield curve increases
uniformly across all terms by 25 basis points per half-a-year.
(c) Credit default swaps may be used to ameliorate credit risk. Appraise the use of such
option-like derivative instruments in managing the risk of the portfolio by explaining
how such instruments function.

Short Story
“The Bet” (or how your money finds its way to Wall Street)

Long Bets was seeded by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and operates as a non-profit organization that administers just what you’d guess: long-term bets. To participate, “proposers” post a proposition at Longbets.org that will be proved right or wrong at a distant date. They then wait for a contrary-minded party to take the other side of the bet. When a “doubter” steps forward, each side names a charity that will be the beneficiary if its side wins; parks its wager with Long Bets; and posts a short essay defending its position on the Long Bets website. When the bet is concluded, Long Bets pays off the winning charity.

Here are examples of what you will find on Long Bets’ very interesting site:

In 2002, entrepreneur Mitch Kapor asserted that “By 2029 no computer – or ‘machine intelligence’ – will have passed the Turing Test,” which deals with whether a computer can successfully impersonate a human being. Inventor Ray Kurzweil took the opposing view. Each backed up his opinion with $10,000. I don’t know who will win this bet, but I will confidently wager that no computer will ever replicate Charlie.

That same year, Craig Mundie of Microsoft asserted that pilotless planes would routinely fly passengers by 2030, while Eric Schmidt of Google argued otherwise. The stakes were $1,000 each. To ease any heartburn Eric might be experiencing from his outsized exposure, I recently offered to take a piece of his action. He promptly laid off $500 with me. (I like his assumption that I’ll be around in 2030 to contribute my payment, should we lose.)

Now, to my bet and its history. In Berkshire’s 2005 annual report, I argued that active investment management by professionals – in aggregate – would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved by rank amateurs who simply sat still. I explained that the massive fees levied by a variety of “helpers” would leave their clients – again in aggregate – worse off than if the amateurs simply invested in an unmanaged low-cost index fund.

Subsequently, I publicly offered to wager $500,000 that no investment pro could select a set of at least five hedge funds – wildly-popular and high-fee investing vehicles – that would over an extended period match the performance of an unmanaged S&P-500 index fund charging only token fees. I suggested a ten-year bet and named a low-cost Vanguard S&P fund as my contender. I then sat back and waited expectantly for a parade of fund managers – who could include their own fund as one of the five – to come forth and defend their occupation. After all, these managers urged others to bet billions on their abilities. Why should they fear putting a little of their own money on the line?

If Group A (active investors) and Group B (do-nothing investors) comprise the total investing universe, and B is destined to achieve average results before costs, so, too, must A. Whichever group has the lower costs will win. (The academic in me requires me to mention that there is a very minor point – not worth detailing – that slightly modifies this formulation.) And if Group A has exorbitant costs, its shortfall will be substantial. There are, of course, some skilled individuals who are highly likely to out-perform the S&P over long stretches.

In my lifetime, though, I’ve identified – early on – only ten or so professionals that I expected would accomplish this feat. There are no doubt many hundreds of people – perhaps thousands – whom I have never met and whose abilities would equal those of the people I’ve identified. The job, after all, is not impossible. The problem simply is that the great majority of managers who attempt to over-perform will fail. The probability is also very high that the person soliciting your funds will not be the exception who does well. Bill Ruane – a truly wonderful human being and a man whom I identified 60 years ago as almost certain to deliver superior investment returns over the long haul – said it well: “In investment management, the progression is from the innovators to the imitators to the swarming incompetents.”

Further complicating the search for the rare high-fee manager who is worth his or her pay is the fact that some investment professionals, just as some amateurs, will be lucky over short periods. If 1,000 managers make a market prediction at the beginning of a year, it’s very likely that the calls of at least one will be correct for nine consecutive years. Of course, 1,000 monkeys would be just as likely to produce a seemingly all-wise prophet.

But there would remain a difference: The lucky monkey would not find people standing in line to invest with him. Finally, there are three connected realities that cause investing success to breed failure. First, a good record quickly attracts a torrent of money. Second, huge sums invariably act as an anchor on investment performance: What is easy with millions, struggles with billions (sob!). Third, most managers will nevertheless seek new money because of their personal equation – namely, the more funds they have under management, the more their fees. These three points are hardly new ground for me: In January 1966, when I was managing $44 million, I wrote my limited partners: “I feel substantially greater size is more likely to harm future results than to help them. This might not be true for my own personal results, but it is likely to be true for your results. Therefore, I intend to admit no additional partners to BPL. I have notified Susie that if we have any more children, it is up to her to find some other partnership for them.”

The bottom line: When trillions of dollars are managed by Wall Streeters charging high fees, it will usually be the managers who reap outsized profits, not the clients. Both large and small investors should stick with low-cost index funds.

In many aspects of life, indeed, wealth does command top-grade products or services. For that reason, the financial “elites” – wealthy individuals, pension funds, college endowments and the like – have great trouble meekly signing up for a financial product or service that is available as well to people investing only a few thousand dollars. This reluctance of the rich normally prevails even though the product at issue is –on an expectancy basis – clearly the best choice. My calculation, admittedly very rough, is that the search by the elite for superior investment advice has caused it, in aggregate, to waste more than $100 billion over the past decade. Figure it out: Even a 1% fee on a few trillion dollars adds up. Of course, not every investor who put money in hedge funds ten years ago lagged S&P returns. But I believe my calculation of the aggregate shortfall is conservative.

Much of the financial damage befell pension funds for public employees. Many of these funds are woefully underfunded, in part because they have suffered a double whammy: poor investment performance accompanied by huge fees. The resulting shortfalls in their assets will for decades have to be made up by local taxpayers.

Human behavior won’t change. Wealthy individuals, pension funds, endowments and the like will continue to feel they deserve something “extra” in investment advice. Those advisors who cleverly play to this expectation will get very rich. This year the magic potion may be hedge funds, next year something else. The likely result from this parade of promises is predicted in an adage: “When a person with money meets a person with experience, the one with experience ends up with the money and the one with money leaves with experience.”

Question:
Summarize Buffett’s views on “The Bet” and passive investment management

Consider the following model of the saving-investment balance. In this model, the following relationship must remain in balance: S + (M-X) = I + (G-T) where,

S is domestic saving by households and businesses

M is U.S. imports of goods and services

X is U.S. exports of goods and services

I is private domestic investment in capital goods

G is total federal, state and local government spending on goods and services, and

T is the net receipt of tax revenues by federal, state and local governments

The presentation: “Lesson 1: The Savings and Investment Balance” in this week’s lesson can help you understand this identity better.

Clearly, as with any high-level model, there are limitations but let’s try to understand how this model functions mechanically.Consider the model of the saving-investment balance only as an algebraic accounting identity (i.e., do not consider any economic repercussions or additional complications (those can come later)), What does the model predict will happen to gross private domestic investment (I) if:

a) Domestic saving by households was to decrease, everything else remaining the same?

b) U.S. net tax receipts were to increase, everything else remaining the same?

c) There was a sudden increase in exports from the U.S., everything else remaining the same?

d) Pre-tax business profits were to increase, everything else remaining the same?

e) Federal grants to state and local governments were to disappear, everything else remaining the same?

2. Examine the note and bond yields presented below for Treasury and Corporate AAA, AA and A-rate bonds. Why do the yields differ across the securities and within securities, across time? Which premiums or market expectations most appropriately explain those differences? In particular, what accounts for the differences in rates across securities types for the same maturities? And speculate on what factor or factors can best explain why the yields rise as maturities lengthen (within particular types of bonds). Finally, do any securities look out of place and, if so, which and why?

Treasuries

2 year 0.33%

5 year 1.39%

10 year 2.64%

20 year 3.42%

Corporate, AAA

2 year 0.40%

5 year 1.77%

10 year 3.52%

20 year 4.93%

(table continues on next page)

Corporate, AA

2 year 0.63%

5 year 1.91%

10 year 3.50%

20 year 4.43%

Corporate, A

2 year 0.84%

5 year 2.15%

10 year 3.67%

20 year 4.75%

3. Suppose that today the one-year Treasury note yields 0.12% (0.0012 in decimal form), the two-year note yields 0.40% (0.0040), the three-year note yields 0.78% (0.0078), the five-year note yields 1.60% (0.0160), the seven-year note yields 2.22% (0.0222) and the ten-year note yields 2.81% (0.0281). Under the pure expectations theory with no maturity risk:

a) What is the expected yield on a one-year note delivered one year from now?

b) What is the expected yield on a one-year note delivered two years from now?

c) What is the expected yield on a three-year note delivered two years from now?

d) What is the expected yield on a two-year note delivered five years from now?

e) What is the expected yield on a five-year note delivered five years from now?

f) What is the expected yield on a seven-year note delivered three years from now?

Note: This concept is discussed in Chapter 3 of the text and in “Lesson 2: More On Yield Curves and Forward Rate Determination” in this week’s online materials.

4. Assume that interest rate parity holds so that future or forward exchange rates adjust to eliminate investor arbitrage profits. If interest rates in Britain are higher than corresponding interest rates in Japan, would you expect an appreciating pound or a depreciating pound in the futures (forward) market relative to the current spot market rate? In terms of the supply and demand for pounds in the spot and forward currency markets, what is implicitly occurring in each as a result of interest rate parity? Is the pound selling forward at a premium or at a discount relative to the yen? (The presentation “Lesson 3: On Exchange Rates” from this week’s materials can help shed light on this subject. The portion on interest rate parity later in the presentation, so stick with it. It’s also discussed in Chapter 16.)

5. The spot market rate for the euro is 1.4059 Canadian dollars per euro. The 3-month futures (forward) rate on the euro is 1.4147 Canadian dollars per euro. The yield on a 3-month Canadian government security is 1.16 percent (0.0116 decimal), annual percentage rate (APR). The yield on a 3-month euro area security is 0.24 percent (0.0024 decimal), annual percentage rate (APR). Show that interest rate parity (IRP) does not hold by solving for the forward rate that ensures IRP. How would you take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity arising from the actual data (i.e., borrow 1,000,000 euros, convert to Canadian dollars, invest in Canada, sell the proceeds forward and then repay your loan or borrow 1,000,000 Canadian dollars, convert to euros, invest in Europe, sell the proceeds forward and then repay your loan)?

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