PSYC 3110 Study Guide - Final Guide: Numeracy, Sexual Dysfunction, Colorectal Cancer

• School: University of Guelph
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSYC 3110
• Professor: Kieran O' Doherty

Document Summary

Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight. A glance at the literature shows a shocking lack of statistical understanding of the outcomes of modern technologies, from standard screening tests for hiv infection to. For instance, doctors with an average of 14 years of professional experience were asked to imagine using the haemoccult test to screen for colorectal cancer. The state(cid:373)e(cid:374)t (cid:862)3(cid:1004)% (cid:272)ha(cid:374)(cid:272)e of rai(cid:374) to(cid:373)orrow(cid:863) is a probability statement: the error with single event probabilities comes from interpretation, some people will interpret 30% of areas will get rain, while others think. How to foster insight: use frequency statements. The conditional probability of a given b, is confused with b given a. Natural frequencies correspond to the way humans have encountered statistical information during most of their history: they are called natural frequencies (cid:271)e(cid:272)ause they"re depi(cid:272)ted as they o(cid:272)(cid:272)ur i(cid:374) the natural world. How to foster insight: use natural frequencies, alone or together with conditional probabilities.