Economics 2150A/B Study Guide - Quiz Guide: Government Debt, Quantitative Easing

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ECON 2150A/B Full Course Notes

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One of the consequences of the financial crisis has been the bailout of banks by national govts. Govt debt has increased = sovereign debt crisis occured from bailing out and in part nationalisation. Scale of govt debt as a scale of gdp. Sovereign debt : debt used to finance govt expenditure. Issued by a central govt, usually in the form of securities, to various development initiatives within a country. Selling debt in the private market to international investors and other govts, and in return the holder of the debt will be guaranteed a payout linear relationship with returns and risk with all investment decisions. Buy 3 year govt debt worth 1000, then at the end of the 3 years when the debt is said to mature, then you receive 1000+ 100. Price of the bond which changes, the nominal amount stays fixed. Corporate bond market private sector financing investment and spending plans by borrowing.

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Let's change it up a little. You may have to dig a little for this one. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are two banking giants that have been in news because of their role in the 2008 financial crisis. Due to this many in the government believe that the two companies should be put out of business. On the other hand, there are many who believe the companies should remain as they are. See The Case For Keeping Fannie and Freddie Alive. The argument both ways is in a sales pitch for the two contrary opinions. how would you convince someone either way on the issue of Fannie and Freddie? A reference is required to support your post

On just one major piece of economic policy, President Obama and House Republicans share the same basic opinion: kill off government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This rare bit of consensus might also prove to be a devastating mistake.

Fannie and Freddie which guarantee mortgages were placed under federal conservatorship in 2008 as the housing bust reached its apex. The firms are roughly within $42 billion of repaying the $187.5 billion they received from taxpayers, but Obama and much of Congress plan to wind them down in the belief that another federal bailout will never again be necessary.

We can't leave taxpayers on the hook for irresponsibility or bad decisions by some of these lenders or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, Obama said in a speech this month. We've got to encourage the pursuit of profit, but the era of expecting a bailout after you pursue your profit and you don't manage your risk well, that puts the whole country at risk. And we're ending those days. We're not going to do that anymore.

But the political debate has been lopsided thus far focused on putting Fannie and Freddie into the grave, while largely ignoring what their demise could mean for homebuyers and the economy a sharp jump in interest rates, and a drop in the availability of mortgages.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has objected to plans to end both companies.

These are the government organizations that have made homeownership so easy, Reid recently told Nevada Public Radio. I don't agree with the president. He says he wants to get rid of them. I'm going to look closely at his recommendations because on their face, I don't like them.

Mostly, economists and investors are framing the issue in the same way as Reid.

It boils down to a tradeoff between shifting risk away from the government and taxpayers, versus keeping mortgages inexpensive and widely available, said Jed Kolko, the chief economist at the real estate firm Trulia. When push comes to shove, it's hard to do both.

Their executives received outlandish bonuses during the boom, only to foist the eventual losses caused by years of mismanagement onto the public. It rightfully enables sucker punches from Capitol Hill that voters approve of, even though the rescue kept the entire housing sector alive. Of the $1.75 trillion worth of mortgages originated last year, about 90 percent were made through the federal government.

This point matters because Fannie and Freddie ensure that the housing market does not seize up during a recession, said Ken Fears, an economist for the National Association of Realtors. Even if more private capital is needed in the mortgage industry, having the government participation creates liquidity that keeps the entire sector operating during tough economic times, Fears said.

Lawmakers tend to assume that the markets can transition over five or 10 years to a mortgage industry with a modest government backstop, or no taxpayer support at all. Before retiring at the end of May as a managing director for bond investor PIMCO, Scott Simon said that this amounted to a fantasy.

The private market can make mortgages, but they would trade at much higher yields and the down payments would be much higher because the private market cannot make competitive, fixed-rate mortgages with 20% or less of a down payment on the loans, Simon told National Mortgage News. Most of the people who think we should shut [the GSEs] down have a pure philosophical belief and they don't care what the outcome is. Or they simply don't understand anything about how housing finance works.

Fannie and Freddie help the economy with their guarantees, Simon reasoned but exposed taxpayers to their risks by having their own investment portfolios.

As of now, all profits from both companies go to the Treasury Department, per changes made last year to the terms of the conservatorship. In the original terms, Treasury received a 10 percent dividend from Fannie and Freddie. But Fannie and Freddie are now required to fork over all of their earnings forever to Treasury, a windfall that suddenly reduced the budget deficit.

A group of investors led by the hedge fund Perry Capital challenged this arrangement in a U.S. District Court lawsuit filed last month, claiming that they deserve a share of the proceeds after taxpayers have been repaid.

Because Fannie and Freddie are now generating cash, it would in theory be possible for the government to use these profits to create a capital cushion that prevents the need for a future taxpayer bailout.

By keeping the two companies under government control, taxpayers would benefit from the sale of about $200 billion worth of equity, investors in Fannie, Freddie, and other real estate assets explained in the background. The profits would be enough to create a capital cushion to insulate against a future downturn, without having to seek capital in the private market that could push mortgage interest rates higher.

But this requires Obama and GOP lawmakers to save Fannie and Freddie, precisely what they have vowed not to do. Obama wants a government insurance fund to replace them, while Republican congressmen favor an end to any Washington involvement with guarantees.

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) would eliminate almost all federal involvement in the mortgage market. His policy assumes that the rusty tin standard of 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages would soon fade away, as more homebuyers would settle for variable-rate mortgages. Interest rates on a 30-year, fixed mortgage currently average 4.4 percent, a figure that could instead swing violently over time depending on inflation and the Federal Reserve. When the Fed attempted to tamp down inflation between 1980 and 1982, rates soared above 16 percent with the government backstop in place.

Obama would like to preserve the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. He has endorsed adopting a more limited government backstop as outlined in a bipartisan Senate bill co-sponsored by Tennessee Republican Bob Corker and Virginia Democrat Mark Warner.

The Corker-Warner bill would also unwind Fannie and Freddie, bringing their dominance to an end. In their place would be private financial institutions that would pay into a government insurance fund. Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody's Analytics, estimated that the plan would cause mortgage rates to increase by as much as 1.25 percent in the near-term. This estimate assumes a 20 percent down payment and a credit score of 750, slightly above the current U.S. average.

But of course, lawmakers have not discussed the potential tradeoffs in the early stages of mortgage reform. Unless voters have a clearer picture of the consequences, some say it could produce the same kind of boondoggle caused by Obamacare in 2010.

I don't think there has been much of a sales job to the public on what a new mortgage finance system looks like, said Brian Gardner, senior vice president of Washington research at the investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. I don't think you shove this down the throat of the electorate, as we saw with the health care overhaul.

apricotgiraffe451

TRUE / FALSE

1. True False In the aggregate expenditures model presented in the textbook,

investment is assumed to rise with increases in real GDP and fall with decreases in real GDP.

2. True False When C + I_g = GDP in a private closed economy, S = I_g and there are no unplanned changes in inventories.

3. True False The risk-free interest rate is the rate on long-term U.S. government bonds.

4. True False Bond prices and interest rates are directly or positively related.

5. True False The public debt is the accumulation of all deficits and surpluses that have occurred through time.

6. True False The M₂ money supply may be larger or smaller than the M₁ money supply depending on the size of small-denominated time deposit balances and Money Market Mutual Fund balances held by individuals.

7. True False Excess reserves are the amount by which required reserves exceed actual reserves.

8. True False The public debt is held as Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and U.S. savings bonds.

9. True False The equilibrium price level and equilibrium level of real GDP occur at the intersection of the aggregate demand curve and the aggregate supply curve.

10. True False Investment is highly stable; it increases over time at a very steady rate.

MULTIPLE CHOICE

11. A recessionary expenditure gap is:

A. the amount by which the full-employment GDP exceeds the level of aggregate expenditures.

B. the amount by which equilibrium GDP falls short of the full-employment GDP.

C. the amount by which investment exceeds saving at the full-employment GDP.

D. the amount by which aggregate expenditures exceed the full-employment level of GDP.

12. The multiplier effect indicates that:

A. a decline in the interest rate will cause a proportionately larger increase in investment.

B. a change in spending will change aggregate income by a larger amount.

C. a change in spending will increase aggregate income by the same amount.

D. an increase in total income will generate a larger change in aggregate expenditures.

13. Which one of the following is true about the U.S. Federal Reserve System?

There are 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.

B. The head of the U.S. Treasury also chairs the Federal Reserve Board.

C. There are 14 members of the Federal Reserve Board.

D. The Open Market Committee is smaller in size than the Federal Reserve Board.

14. If the nominal interest rate is 18 percent and the real interest rate is 6 percent, the inflation rate is:

A. 18 percent.

B. 24 percent.

C. 12 percent.

D. 6 percent.

15.

Refer to the above diagram for a private closed economy. The equilibrium level of GDP is:

A. $400.

B. $300.

C. $200.

D. $100.

16. Which of the following represents the most expansionary fiscal policy?

A. a $10 billion tax cut

B. a $10 billion increase in government spending

C. a $10 billion tax increase

D. a $10 billion decrease in government spending

17.

Refer to the above table. The economy shown is a:

A. private economy.

B. private open economy.

C. mixed closed economy.

D. mixed open economy.

18. Currency held in the vault of First National Bank is:

A. counted as part of M₁.

B. counted as part of M₂, but not M₁.

C. only counted as part of M₁ if it was deposited into a checking account.

D. not counted as part of the money supply.

19. If the dollar appreciates relative to foreign currencies, we would expect:

A. the multiplier to decrease.

B. the country's exports and imports to both fall.

C. the country's net exports to rise.

D. the country's net exports to fall.

20. The most important determinant of consumption and saving is the:

A. level of bank credit.

B. level of income.

C. interest rate.

D. price level.

21. The multiple by which the commercial banking system can increase the supply of money on the basis of each dollar of excess reserves is equal to:

A. the reciprocal of the required reserve ratio.

B. 1 minus the required reserve ratio.

C. the reciprocal of the income velocity of money.

D. 1/MPS.

22. Which one of the following would not shift the aggregate demand curve?

A. a change in the price level

B. depreciation of the international value of the dollar

C. a decline in the interest rate at each possible price level

D. an increase in personal income tax rate

23. The cyclically-adjusted budget tells us:

A. that in a full-employment economy the Federal budget should be in balance.

B. that tax revenues should vary inversely with GDP.

C. what the size of the Federal budget deficit or surplus would be if the economy was at full

employment.

D. the actual budget deficit or surplus realized in any given year.

24. The aggregate supply curve:

A. is explained by the interest rate, real-balances, and foreign purchases effects.

B. gets steeper as the economy moves from the top of the curve to the bottom of the curve.

C. shows the various amounts of real output that businesses will produce at each price level.

D. is downsloping because real purchasing power increases as the price level falls.

25.

Refer to the above diagram. If the equilibrium price level is P₁, then:

A. aggregate demand is AD₂.

B. the equilibrium output level is Q₃.

C. the equilibrium output level is Q₂.

D. producers will supply output level Q₁

26. Discretionary fiscal policy refers to:

A. any change in government spending or taxes that destabilizes the economy.

B. the authority that the President has to change personal income tax rates.

C. intentional changes in taxes and government expenditures made by Congress to stabilize the economy.

D. the changes in taxes and transfers that occur as GDP changes.

27.

Refer to the above diagram. Which tax system has the most built-in stability?

A. T₄

B. T₃

C. T₂

D. T₁

28.

Refer to the given graph. A shift of the consumption schedule from C₁ to C₂ might be caused by a(n):

A.	recession.

B.	wealth effect of an increase in stock market prices.

C.	increase in income tax rates.

D.	increase in saving.

29. When a bank loan is repaid the supply of money:

A. is constant, but its composition will have changed.

B. is decreased.

C. is increased.

D. may either increase or decrease.

30. The Federal budget deficit is found by:

A. subtracting government tax revenues plus government borrowing from government spending in a particular year.

B. subtracting government tax revenues from government spending in a particular year.

C. cumulating the differences between government spending and tax revenues over all years since the nation's founding.

D. subtracting government revenues from the noninvestment-type government spending in a particular year.

31.

Refer to the above information. Money supply M₁ for this economy is:

A. $ 60.

B. $ 70.

C. $ 130.

D. $ 140.

32. Which of the following statements is true as a result of Federal Reserve efforts to rescue the financial industry from the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008?

From February 2008, to May 2009, the Fed oversaw the consolidation of 20 major financial institutions into fewer than a dozen.

B. From March 2008, to February 2009, the Fed experienced a 50 percent decline in the value of assets held.

C. From February 2008, to March 2009, Fed assets more than doubled to nearly $2 trillion.

D. From February 2008, to March 2009, Fed lending caused the U.S. public debt to rise by over $1 trillion.

33. Which of the following is the basic economic policy function of the Federal Reserve Banks?

holding the deposits or reserves of commercial banks

B. acting as fiscal agents for the Federal government

C. controlling the supply of money

D. the collection or clearing of checks among commercial banks

34. In a fractional reserve banking system:

A. bank panics cannot occur.

B. the monetary system must be backed by gold.

C. banks can create money through the lending process.

D. the Federal Reserve has no control over the amount of money in circulation.

35.

Refer to the diagram that applies to a private closed economy. The APC is equal to 1 at income level:

36. Assume the Continental National Bank's balance statement is as follows:

Assuming a legal reserve ratio of 20 percent, how much in excess reserves would this bank have after a check for $10,000 was drawn and cleared against it?

A. $ 3,000

B. $ 24,000

C. $ 6,000

D. $ 16,000

37. Answer the question on the basis of the following table for a commercial bank or thrift:

Refer to the above table. When the legal reserve ratio is 25 percent, the excess reserves of this single bank are:

A. $0.

B. $1,000.

C. $5,000.

D. $30,000.

38. Which of the following is a tool of monetary policy?

A. open market operations

B. changes in banking laws

C. changes in tax rates

D. changes in government spending

39. An increase in nominal GDP increases the demand for money because:

A. interest rates will rise.

B. more money is needed to finance a larger volume of transactions.

C. bond prices will fall.

D. the opportunity cost of holding money will decline.

40. Answer the next question on the basis of the following table:

At equilibrium in the above market for money, the total amount of money demanded is:

A. $500.

B. $480.

C. $460.

D. $440.

41. For most financial assets investors must be compensated for:

A. non-diversifiable and diversifiable risk.

B. diversifiable risk and time preference.

C. non-diversifiable risk and time preference.

D. non-diversifiable and diversifiable risk, and time preference.

42. Reserves must be deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks by:

A. only commercial banks which are members of the Federal Reserve System.

B. all depository institutions, that is, all commercial banks and thrift institutions.

C. state chartered commercial banks only.

D. federally chartered commercial banks only.

43.

Refer to the diagrams. Assuming a constant price level, an increase in aggregate expenditures from AE₁to AE₂ would:

A.	move the economy from A to C along AD₁.

B.	move the economy from C to A along AD₁.

C.	increase aggregate demand from AD₁ to AD₂.

D.	decrease aggregate demand from AD₂ to AD₁.

44. The discount rate is the interest:

A. rate at which the central banks lend to the U.S. Treasury.

B. rate at which the Federal Reserve Banks lend to commercial banks.

C. yield on long-term government bonds.

D. rate at which commercial banks lend to the public.

45. What concept describes how quickly an investment increases in value when interest is paid not only on the original amount invested, but also on the accumulated interest payments?

A. present value

B. future value

C. compound interest

D. real rate of interest

46. The aggregate demand curve:

A. is upsloping because a higher price level is necessary to make production profitable as production costs rise.

B. is downsloping because production costs decline as real output increases.

C. shows the amount of expenditures required to induce the production of each possible level of real output.

D. shows the amount of real output that will be purchased at each possible price level.

47. The Security Market Line depicts the relationship between the:

A. average expected rate of return on stocks and the average expected rate of return on bonds.

B. average expected rate of return of a financial asset and the discount rate.

C. risk level of a financial asset and the prime interest rate.

D. average expected rate of return and risk level of a financial asset.

48. Arbitrage causes all financial assets:

A. of the same risk level to have the same price.

B. to have the same expected rate of return.

C. to have the same beta.

D. of the same risk level to have the same average expected rate of return.

49.

Refer to the diagrams. The numbers in parentheses after the AD₁, AD₂, and AD₃ labels indicate the levels of investment spending associated with each curve. All figures are in billions. If the money supply is MS₁ and the goal of the monetary authorities is full-employment output Q_f, they should:

A.	increase the money supply from $80 to $100.

B.	increase the money supply from $80 to $120.

C.	maintain the money supply at $80.

D.	decrease the money supply from $80 to $60.

50. Given the expected rate of return on all possible investment opportunities in the economy:

A. an increase in the real rate of interest will reduce the level of investment.

B. a decrease in the real rate of interest will reduce the level of investment.

C. a change in the real interest rate will have no impact on the level of investment.

D. an increase in the real interest rate will increase the level of investment.

END OF THE EXAM

Hyflux dips toes into wellness, beauty market /
Hyflux banks on oxygenated water for consumer market
In City Square Mall, a new store offering bath facilities has opened its doors to shoppers.
This marks Hyflux, the company better known for its desalination plants, first foray into the
brick-and-motar retail sector with its budding consumer business. The Singapore-listed
company will open Elo Lab officially on 8 September 2016. This retail outlet is a physical
representation of Hyfluxâs bet on the consumer water business â in particular, on a special
oxygenated water termed Elo Water.
Said to contain three times more oxygen than tap water, Elo Water was the reason
behind Hyflux's US$8 million investment in European firm Kaqun Europe in November
2015. It also forms the basis for the group's new bath facilities, as well as bottled
drinking water and skincare gels that it sells online. "Oxygen can increase the cell's ability to
generate more energy," Hyflux group chief financial officer Lim Suat Wah explained in an
interview with The Business Times. "A cell with sufficient oxygen can actually generate 15
times more energy than a cell without sufficient oxygen. So this Elo Water puts the two
together, the water element as well as the oxygen."
The venture into the consumer business came as Hyflux sought to see how water, besides
being used for daily needs, could also be used to improve health. It conducted a research and
uncovered a company which produced similar oxygenated water in the US a few years ago,
but the oxygen level in the water produced with their technology wasn't stable. On the other
hand, Kaqun was able to produce oxygenated water that contains stable oxygen levels which
can be easily absorbed into the body. This has been shown to reduce mental and physical
tiredness, according to Kaqun's website.
The oxygenated water is said to have been developed from more than 10 years of research
work by a group of doctors. Hyflux holds the exclusive rights to manufacture, sell and market
Elo Water in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa. It holds a 70 per cent stake in
Elo Water Pte Ltd with Kaqun Europe owning the rest.
"We're quite excited about this business," said Ms Lim. The group hopes to add its
proprietary membrane expertise to purify the water and also use its know-how to scale up
production of Elo Water while ensuring consistency in quality. For a start, Hyflux has
commenced clinical trials to test the properties of Elo Water. The first of these have just been
concluded, with observations of improved skin condition after the use of Elo Gel.
The clinical study, conducted by Seoul-based clinical trial institute, involved 22 women aged
49 to 52 years old who applied Elo Gel every morning and night on half their face for eight
straight weeks. During this period, skin wrinkles, colour elasticity, hydration and radiance
were observed to be "significantly improved" on the side of their faces treated with Elo Gel.
The study validated some of the observations that they have been hearing from people who
have already used it.
But even before conclusive trial results on the drinking water and bath come in â expected to
be only in 2017 â news of the products and their effects have travelled by word of mouth.
Bottles of Elo Water and Elo Gel have been snapped up, causing the company to run out of
stock of the products on occasions. A pack of six 1.5-litre bottles of Elo Water costs S$63.80
and a single tube of Elo Gel, S$68, according to its website. Still, Hyflux will not actively
market the products until it has more substantial trial results. Currently, the business in Elo
Water still remains small, as Hyflux only sells them in Singapore via an online channel.
The firm is hoping that Elo Water might bring a new breath of life to its business and
broaden Hyflux's reach to a new group of customers â consumers. How large the business
could grow into would depend on the number of cities Hyflux moves into. More investment
will also be needed in marketing, IT systems and building up a logistics network.
Singapore will be the starting point for sales, and a valuable one given its credibility and
governance. "If it can be established in Singapore, then other cities and countries will look at
(Elo Water) with more trust." In 2017, the group plans to expand sales to other Asian
countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia. China, too, is on the radar, said Ms Lim. The Elo
Water is also generating interest from consumers in countries like Australia, Hong Kong,
Thailand and China. The firm has already received enquiries on when its Elo products will be
marketed there.
Hyflux is also hoping for positive clinical trial results to give the products more credibility,
especially within the medical field. Anecdotally, users have said that Elo Water helps to
improve certain medical conditions, and some medical clinics are already ordering the gel
and drinking water through the Elo Water website. Said Ms Lim: "Some heard from their
patients who tried it and went back to them, so they know that there's some effect there. But
they can't actively promote it at this time (without the clinical trial results)."When the resul ts
come out, "hopefully, at that point in time, it will take off on a larger scale", she said. In the
coming months, Hyflux will be conducting clinical trials to determine if the water can help
benefit those with diabetes and prediabetes (blood glucose levels that are higher than normal,
but not yet high enough to be diagnosed as diabetes).
For individuals such as homemaker Audrey Koh, however, personal experience alone
suffices. The 49-year-old has been drinking Elo Water for the last six months and also
finished a cycle of soaking sessions for 14 straight days. "People who have not seen me for a
year or even six months and saw me recently remark that I look as though I have lost weight,"
she said, adding her complexion has improved, and body more toned.
Asked whether the price tag would deter her from continuing on another cycle of soaking
sessions or drinking Elo Water, she said the opportunity cost of being ill is higher than the
cost of water. Ms Koh added: "How do you place a price on health?
(Adapted for academic purposes: âHyflux dips toes into wellness, beauty market / Hyflux banks on
oxygenated water for consumer market,â by Andrea Soh, The Business Times, 6 September 2016.)

Analyse three (3) possible social and personal factors that can have an impact on a
consumerâs decision to purchase the Elo brand of oxygenated water for personal
consumption.
(30 marks)

Economics 2150A/B Study Guide - Quiz Guide: Government Debt, Quantitative Easing

ECON 2150A/B Full Course Notes

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