PSYCH 240 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Base Rate Fallacy, Ipod Shuffle, Conjunction Fallacy
12 Dec 2017
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Exam 3 - review sheet part 4. Two kinds of reasoning tasks: deterministic/deductive vs. probabilistic/inductive. Normative inductive reasoning: base rate and current evidence. Bayes theorem--understand the 3 pieces of information you need to determine p(h/e): base rate or p(h), p(e/h), p(e/not h). Insufficient weight to base rate: poker chip example. Lawyers and engineers: no description vs. engineer description vs. neutral description. How representativeness explains doctor"s tendency to confuse p(h/e) and p(e/h). Tom w. experiment: evidence for the role similarity in base rate neglect. Why people use heuristics instead of reasoning normatively. Availability heuristic: evaluate the probability of an event by judging the ease with which relevant instances come to mind. Factors other than frequency can affect retrievability: biases from increased activation of a node in memory: famous names experiment. Ease of constructing a scenario: mr. crane and mr. tees"s emotional reaction. Causal links between action and actor: ease of simulating avoidance of accident.
