ACC 312 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Minidisc, Delphi Method, Curve Fitting
Document Summary
Qualitative forecasting uses expert opinion to predict future events and includes: The delphi method panel of recognised experts. Technological comparisons independent forecasters predicting changes in one area by monitoring changes in another area. Subjective curve fitting for example similar product life cycles for similar products like cd players and mini disc players. Quantitative forecasting uses historical data to try and predict the future, and includes univariate models and causal models. Univariate models predict future values of time series when conditions are expected to remain the same, for example exponential smoothing and the use of moving averages. Causal models involve the use of the identification of other variables related to the variable being predicted. For example, linear regression may be used to forecast sales, using the independent variables of: Whichever forecasting method is used it is important that the basis and the methodology of the forecasting is understood.
