ECON 102 Quiz: ECON 102 UW Madison Quiz0Summer2017

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turquoisegnu128

31 Jan 2019

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Quiz #0 with answers: (1 point) you are given the following two points (x, y) = (10, 20) and (-5, 10). Show your work: you are given the following two equations that describe two linear lines: Equation 2: y = 20 + 6x: (1 point) at what (x, y) do these two lines intersect with one another. Will the new y value be greater or smaller than the initial y value: (2 points) go back to the initial situation. You are now told that equation 1 has changed such that for every x value the y value is now two units smaller. The new equation 1 is parallel to the old equation 1. Given this information and holding everything else constant, find the new (x", Y") where the new equation 1 intersects with the initial equation 2. Carry your answers out to two places past the decimal: (2 points) the price of money is the interest rate.

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1.Dr. Claw is hatching a plan to steal all of the cherry blossoms in Japan, cornering the market on haiku inspiration. He likes his henchmen to be big, fast, and obedient. Lou the Lunk weighs 340 pounds, runs slowly, and is somewhat obedient. Turncoat Tom weighs 240 pounds, runs very fast, and is very disobedient. Brainwashed Bobby weighs 150 pounds, has average speed, and is extremely obedient.

(a) Suppose Dr. Claw prefers henchman A to henchman B if A is superior to B in at least two of these dimensions, otherwise he is indifferent. Are Dr. Clawâs preferences complete? Are they transitive? Explain your answer.

(b) Now suppose Dr. Claw only prefers henchman A to henchman B if A is superior to B in all three dimensions. If A and B are identical in all three traits, then he is indifferent. Otherwise, Dr. Claw cannot compare the two henchmen. Are Dr. Clawâs preferences complete in this case? Are they transitive? Explain.

2. In this exercise, I will show you how to plot some indifference curves for the utility function u(x, y) = xy. Carefully read and follow these steps.

(a) For each of the values x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, find the corresponding value of y such that u(x, y) = 5. Plot these points on a graph of the x, y coordinate plane.

(b) Find the formula for the slope of the indifference curve passing through any point (x, y). Calculate these slopes for each point from part (a).

(c) Plot the slopes from part (b) on the same graph by drawing a short line segment at each point with its corresponding slope. For example, at (1, y1), draw a small line segment with the slope of the indifference curve through (1, y1).

(d) On the same graph, approximate the indifference curve corresponding to u(x, y) = 5 by sketching a curve that passes through each of the plotted points from (a), matching the slope of the line segments from (c) at each point.

(e) Repeat parts (a)-(d), but now for u(x, y) = 10, using the same graph.

limejackal967

1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality.

Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data

Q1 .80 295

Q2 .85 299

Q3 1.15 270

Q4 --- 271

2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing?

A. Alpha and Delta

B. Delta and Gamma

C. Alpha and Gamma

D. Standard Deviation and Mean

3. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient.

A. Ho: r = .05 p < .5

B. Ho: r = 0 p >.05

C. Ho: r ? 0 p?.05

D. Ho: r = 0 p?.05

In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable?

A. The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate.
B. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value.
C. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values.
D. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values.

5. A Wendy's franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Wendy's outlet average of $1,368,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied?

A. H1: u ? $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
B. H1: u = $1,368,000 A two-tailed t-test.
C. H1: u < $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
D. H1: p < $1,368,000 A one-tailed test to the right

6. As the sample size from a population increases, for a given level of significance what happens to the null hypothesis rejection region and size of the t-table value?

A. The rejection region and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample size below 31.
B. The rejection region gets larger and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample sizes below 31.
C. The rejection region remains unchanged while the t-table value gets smaller for all sample sizes.
D. The zero mean hypothesis region gets larger and the t-table value gets larger as well for sample sizes below 31.

7. You obtained autocorrelation LBQ value of 18.58 for the 12^th lag from a data sample. Are the data significantly correlated at the lag examined or not? You want to be 95% confident in your answer.

A. Yes. The data are significantly correlated through the 12th lag.
B. No. The data are not significantly correlated through the 12^th lag.

C. No. Only the 12 lag period is not correlated.

D. You cannot tell since the number of sample observations is not provided.

E. The p-value is above .05 so the data is correlated.

8. Sometimes forecasters get lazy or forgetful and do not check the significance of XY data correlations and use the X variable to forecast Y. What is the result of this?

A. Type 2 error
B. Autocorrelation error
C. Type 3 error
D. Type 1 error

9. Do error measures indicate the statistical significance of forecast model variables?

A. Yes. They move in the same direction as statistical significance.
B. Yes. As error measures decrease the variable significance increases.
C. No They indicate only the magnitude of estimate error.
D. No. They indicate only the statistical significance of a forecast or fitted values.

10. In exponential smoothing what is the weight of the alpha coefficient for a time series data observation from the 3^rd previous period if the original alpha value is set at .8?

A. The weight cannot be calculated since the data observation is not given.
B. The weight is zero since the alpha value is set relatively high.
C. .548
D. .0064

11.Given the data series below for variables Y (Monthly Inventory Balance) and X (Monthly Sales) are they significantly correlated at the 95% confidence level and how can you tell?

Ending Inv. Bal. Y		Monthly Sales X
1544		5053
1913		5052
2028		7507
1178		2887
1554		3880
1910		4454
1208		3855
2467		8824
2101		5716

A. Yes. The correlation coefficient is .873 that is greater than .05.
B. Yes. The correlation p-value is .002 which is less than .05.
C. No. The correlation coefficient is above the p-value.
D.No. The correlation p-value is greater than the 95% confidence level.

12. You have forecast the sales for your company for the last 12 months and the forecast residuals are shown below. Are these residuals to be considered random?
Residuals

-24

-348

-892

-62

-378

-489

-342

490

578

198

A. Yes, since the residuals randomly vary in magnitude.
B. Yes since the residuals are positive and negative and vary in magnitude.
C. No, since the residuals are stationary and vary in magnitude.
D. No, since the residuals indicate positive slope.

13. Given the residuals in problem 12 above what is the RMSE for the forecast?

A. -101.0
B. 411.8
C. 169603
D. 220.1

14. Which form of exponential smoothing can result in a na

X. Write a da Subway system in which you define a new type Subway System A Subway Systemen of a private ArrayList lines. No methasoher than the constructed the addline method should modify this array list. Your class should have the following co-static methods (25 points) • Write a c tor Subway system that takes thing asing and initializes the private property lines to be an empty mysl • Write a method adine which takes as input a MetroLine newline and acknowline to the array lest lines. The mathed should retun void • Write a method got Distance Travelled which takes as in ArrayList path and returns a double representing the tual distance travelled or a paththalpos from the first Metrostation in the anaylist, to the Metrostation to the third til the cod of the array listHe cach Metrostation along the joy the calculate the distance between the Metrostation and the prices. If the ArrayList Metrostation path is less than 2 vales, y mesh shox return On You may the wale path issul For m e, if the ArrayList Metrostation path five Metrostation you code calculate the sum of the distance between the fin d ing the second third the third and fourth, and lastly the fourth and final stations. Hint: To calculate the distance between two points, you can use a method defined in the appendix in the Maputilities class . Write a method findNearest Station which takes as input a double x and a double y ad the Metrostation which is nearest to the x and y. To do this, it should leather all the Metrostations of all the Metrotines inside of this lines and find the Metro Station that is the smallest distance away. You can use the same appendix method as in the precis i on You may assume that there is a leadine MetroLine defined in the property lines. You may also assume that every MetroLine in lines has at least one Metrostation in Hint There is no method such as getAll Station defined a Metrotine ohjeet. This is since providing this method would rewal a lot about the implementation of the Metrolines and would differ depending on the kind of collectice you are using to store it. However, you can simulate this art of method by using the get PirstStop () and get Next Stop () methods to access every entry of the AmyList. Remember the condition that will cause getNext Stop (to be null • A method qet Neighboringstations which takes input a Metrostation station and re- turns an ArrayList The Arrayut Metrostation whild consist of all nephring stations to station possibly many if the station in ce may lines). P erample, if statice is the 3rd stop on the blue line, the 6th stop on the red line, and the stop on the green line, then the mothed should return an ArrayList

ECON 102 Quiz: ECON 102 UW Madison Quiz0Summer2017

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