STAT 4444 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Prior Probability

• School: Virginia Tech
• Department: Statistics
• Course: STAT 4444
• Professor: Hamdy Mahmoud

Document Summary

Question: a baseball player plays eight games during the season. They have 30 at bats and 5 hits (i. e. , y = 5, n = 30). Assume we have evidence from prior information to think that the prior distribution should follow beta( = 20, = 10). The player will play their next game tomorrow. What is the posterior predictive probability that the player will hit 3 out of 10 at bats (i. e. y = 3, n = 10): organize information. = 10 y = 5 n = 30 y = 3 n = 10. Post = 10 + 30 5 = 35: find the posterior parameters, apply the formula. P (y = y|y) = (cid:18)n y (cid:19) ( post + post)