GOVT2225 Chapter Notes - Chapter 3: John Ikenberry, Education Resources Information Center, Security Dilemma
27 May 2018
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Week3 Correspondence - Looking for Asia’s Security dilemma
TO THE EDITORS (RONAN TSE-MIN FU WRITES):
•Adam Liff and John Ikenberry claim that “a number of recent developments suggest
that the region is ripe for, or may already be experiencing, severe security dilemma-
driven dynamics, even arms races
•They portray China’s rise as the main cause of this dilemma and assert that
states must adopt measures to reduce military competition in the region while
they still can
Severe military competition in the Asia Pacific region
Military spending:
-China increased its military spending by 576% in real terms from 1992 to 201
-Japan’s increase was only 13%
-South Korea’s increase was 96%
-India’s was 192%
Measure in GDP:
-Asian military spending was the lowest it had been since the end of Cold War.
-On average, major Asian countries spent 3.32 and 2.83 percentage of their GDP
on defense in 1988 and 1992, respectively.
-In 2013 the average proportion of GDP that major Asian countries devoted to
defense was only 1.88%
Contrary to Liff and Ikenberry’s claim:
-Military competition in the Asia Pacific is becoming less rather than
more intense.
-This is not to suggest that Asian countries are indifferent to China’s
assertiveness. Asian countries, especially those with territorial or other claims,
certainly care about China’s policy in the South and East China Seas, but
they have not responded by engaging in severe military competition, at
least when measured in the standard manner
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Likely rivals:
-Japan’s 2015 military budget increased 0.8% in absolute terms, hardly
qualifying as remilitarization, much less competition with China.
-Prime Minster Shinzo Abe — the five-year plan
-Might total increases of only $9 billion if it is fully implemented
-those increases are in doubt given Japan’s precarious economic
situation
-Japanese people are skeptical of the government’s effort to engage in a
more activist foreign policy and the military’s desire for greater
influence
-65% of respondents opposed Abe’s efforts to promote closer security
ties with the United States, believing these efforts will not benefit
regional stability
The Vietnam’s military modernization
-Vietnam’s expansion of its total principal surface combatants from its current
two destroyers to four destroyers by 2017 hardly represents a realistic
intention to conduct a significant naval campaign of any type against a great
power such as china
Contrary to Liff and Ikenberry’s claim:
-This suggests that other Asian countries’ propensity to engage in military
competition with China might be lower than Liff and Ikenberry predict
A U.S. Security guarantee?
•The most common explanation for East Asian states’ muted military response
to China’s rise is the existence of a robust U.S. security guarantee that
reassures allies and deters rivals
•Given that the military expenditures of most Asia Pacific countries have
gradually declined for the past quarter century despite “China’s surging
defense budget, and that the United States continues to “pivot” and increase its
forward military development, it might be that the region feels safer because
of the U.S military presence.
•If so, U.S - China security competition would be a causer concern, but not
China-East Asian security completion.
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•Either states are free riding on U.S defense commitments and hence not
spending what they might, to they have doubts about the U.S military guarantee
against all contingencies.
Contrary to Liff and Ikenberry’s claim:
Liff and Ikenberry cannot simultaneously argue
-that states are afraid of China and desperately arming themselves
-unafraid of China given the U.S security guarantee
•Although the U.S. alliance system may mitigate national security concerns for
some Asian countries, it is unlikely to reassure every one of them.
•The U.S. security guarantee is not a blanket guarantee for all military
contingencies
Explanation for continued low military expenditures for both allies and on-allies in
the region:
-Few states fear for their survival
-They are not arming as much as Liff and Ikenberry suggest
•China’s maritime claims are expansive, is unlikely to embark on territorial
expansion.
•Direct military competition with China is unwarranted
•The United States and China may be competing for regional hegemony, but
few other states feel the necessity the choose sides
•Given the stakes are fairly low, it is not surprising that few states appear willing
to make the costly domestic and economic trade-offs required for major
sustained investments in their militaries.
Conclusion
•East Asia is experiencing neither intensifying military competition not an
arms race.
•China has already risen to regional dominance without causing major
disruptions to regional stability.
•The real questions: is why counterbalancing against China or an arms races
has not occurred, despite three decades of extraordinary Chinese economic and
military growth
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Week3 correspondence - looking for asia"s security dilemma. Severe military competition in the asia paci c region. China increased its military spending by 576% in real terms from 1992 to 201. Asian military spending was the lowest it had been since the end of cold war. On average, major asian countries spent 3. 32 and 2. 83 percentage of their gdp on defense in 1988 and 1992, respectively. In 2013 the average proportion of gdp that major asian countries devoted to defense was only 1. 88% Military competition in the asia paci c is becoming less rather than more intense. This is not to suggest that asian countries are indi erent to china"s assertiveness. Japan"s 2015 military budget increased 0. 8% in absolute terms, hardly qualifying as remilitarization, much less competition with china. Prime minster shinzo abe the ve-year plan. Might total increases of only billion if it is fully implemented those increases are in doubt given japan"s precarious economic situation.
