ECON221 Chapter Notes - Chapter 8-10: Ken Wilber, Regression Fallacy, Scatter Plot

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greyelk341

19 May 2017

School

University of Waterloo

Department

Economics

Course

ECON221

Professor

Chris Riddell

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Document Summary

Correlation coefficient: can be found by converting each variable to standard units of which the average of the products = cc. 1: point of averages: find the average of x values and y values. 2: horizontal sd: measure the spread of data from side to side. 3: vertical sd: measure the spread of data from top to bottom. 1: lower left quadrant: both variables are below average, -sd, products of which are positive. 2: upper right quadrant: both variables are above average, +sd, products of which are positive. 3: upper left quadrant: y is below average, x is above average, -sd and +sd, products of which are negative. 4: lower right quadrant: y is above average, x is below average, +sd and -sd, products of which are negative. In a scatter plot with the same sd, as r gets closer to +/-1, the points cluster more tightly around the line (strong linear relationship between variables)

Related Questions

ECON 3050

Q24. The coefficient of determination (r²) is calculated as 0.49, then the correlation coefficient:

Cannot be determined without the data

Should be - 0.70 or 0.70

Should be 0.

Neither of the above

Q25. A regression line is used for all of the following except one. Which one is not a valid use of a regression line?

To estimate the average value of Y at a specified value of X.

To predict the value of Y for an individual, given that individual's X-value.

To estimate the change in Y for a one-unit change in X.

To determine if a change in X causes a change in Y.

Q26. Which choice is not an appropriate description of YË in a regression equation?

Estimated response

Predicted response

Estimated average response

Observed response

Q27. Which of the following is the best way to determine whether or not there is a statistically significant linear relationship between two quantitative variables?

Compute a regression line from a sample and see if the sample slope is 0.

Compute the correlation coefficient and see if it is greater than 0.5 or less than â0.5.

Conduct a test of the null hypothesis that the population slope is 0.

Conduct a test of the null hypothesis that the population intercept is 0.

Q28. There is no relationship between variables unless the data points lie in a straight line.

True

False

Q29. The sample regression analysis

Is the same as the population regression line

Is used to estimate the population regression line

Shows the true relation between dependent and independent variables

None of the above.

Q30. In regression, a dependent variable is sometimes called a predictor variable.

True

False

Q31. In a linear regression equation of the form y = a + bx, the intercept shows

The amount that y changes when x changes by one unit

The amount that x changes when y changes by one unit

The value of y when x is zero

The value of x when y is zero.

Q32. In a linear regression equation of y = a + bx, the slope b shows

Y / b

X / b

Y / X

X / Y

yellowturtle964

Econ 3050

7. When every member of the accessible population has an equal chance of being selected to participate in the study, the researcher is using:

a) Simple random sampling

b) Stratified random sampling

c) Convenience sampling

d) Purposive random sampling

8. A regression line has been found that has nearly all the points lying directly on the line, and only a few of them stray away from the line. Therefore, the standard error of the estimate is likely to be

Huge.

Small.

Undefined.

9. Correlation coefficient ranges from _______ to ____________.

a) - 1 to 0.

b) 0 to 1.

c) -1 to 1.

d) None of the above.

10. The correlation coefficient of determination is the:

a) Ratio of the explained variation to the total deviation.

b) Ratio of the unexplained deviation to the explained deviation.

c) Ratio of the unexplained deviation to the total variation.

d) Ratio of the explained variation to the total variation.

11. If the correlation coefficient r = 0.5 then the coefficient of determination is:

a) 0.10

b) 0.25

c) 1.00

d) 2.50

12. Which one of the following is NOT appropriate for studying the relationship between two quantitative variables?

Scatterplot

Bar chart

Correlation

Regression

13. In regression, an independent variable is sometimes called a response variable.

True

False

14. The simple linear regression equation can be written y = b₀ + b₁x. In the simple linear regression equation, the symbol y represents:

The average or predicted response

Estimated intercept

Estimated slope

Explanatory variable

mauvehyena239

1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality.

Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data

Q1 .80 295

Q2 .85 299

Q3 1.15 270

Q4 --- 271

2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing?

A. Alpha and Delta

B. Delta and Gamma

C. Alpha and Gamma

D. Standard Deviation and Mean

3. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient.

A. Ho: r = .05 p < .5

B. Ho: r = 0 p >.05

C. Ho: r ? 0 p?.05

D. Ho: r = 0 p?.05

In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable?

A. The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate.
B. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value.
C. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values.
D. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values.

5. A Wendy's franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Wendy's outlet average of $1,368,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied?

A. H1: u ? $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
B. H1: u = $1,368,000 A two-tailed t-test.
C. H1: u < $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
D. H1: p < $1,368,000 A one-tailed test to the right

6. As the sample size from a population increases, for a given level of significance what happens to the null hypothesis rejection region and size of the t-table value?

A. The rejection region and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample size below 31.
B. The rejection region gets larger and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample sizes below 31.
C. The rejection region remains unchanged while the t-table value gets smaller for all sample sizes.
D. The zero mean hypothesis region gets larger and the t-table value gets larger as well for sample sizes below 31.

7. You obtained autocorrelation LBQ value of 18.58 for the 12^th lag from a data sample. Are the data significantly correlated at the lag examined or not? You want to be 95% confident in your answer.

A. Yes. The data are significantly correlated through the 12th lag.
B. No. The data are not significantly correlated through the 12^th lag.

C. No. Only the 12 lag period is not correlated.

D. You cannot tell since the number of sample observations is not provided.

E. The p-value is above .05 so the data is correlated.

8. Sometimes forecasters get lazy or forgetful and do not check the significance of XY data correlations and use the X variable to forecast Y. What is the result of this?

A. Type 2 error
B. Autocorrelation error
C. Type 3 error
D. Type 1 error

9. Do error measures indicate the statistical significance of forecast model variables?

A. Yes. They move in the same direction as statistical significance.
B. Yes. As error measures decrease the variable significance increases.
C. No They indicate only the magnitude of estimate error.
D. No. They indicate only the statistical significance of a forecast or fitted values.

10. In exponential smoothing what is the weight of the alpha coefficient for a time series data observation from the 3^rd previous period if the original alpha value is set at .8?

A. The weight cannot be calculated since the data observation is not given.
B. The weight is zero since the alpha value is set relatively high.
C. .548
D. .0064

11.Given the data series below for variables Y (Monthly Inventory Balance) and X (Monthly Sales) are they significantly correlated at the 95% confidence level and how can you tell?

Ending Inv. Bal. Y		Monthly Sales X
1544		5053
1913		5052
2028		7507
1178		2887
1554		3880
1910		4454
1208		3855
2467		8824
2101		5716

A. Yes. The correlation coefficient is .873 that is greater than .05.
B. Yes. The correlation p-value is .002 which is less than .05.
C. No. The correlation coefficient is above the p-value.
D.No. The correlation p-value is greater than the 95% confidence level.

12. You have forecast the sales for your company for the last 12 months and the forecast residuals are shown below. Are these residuals to be considered random?
Residuals

-24

-348

-892

-62

-378

-489

-342

490

578

198

A. Yes, since the residuals randomly vary in magnitude.
B. Yes since the residuals are positive and negative and vary in magnitude.
C. No, since the residuals are stationary and vary in magnitude.
D. No, since the residuals indicate positive slope.

13. Given the residuals in problem 12 above what is the RMSE for the forecast?

A. -101.0
B. 411.8
C. 169603
D. 220.1

14. Which form of exponential smoothing can result in a na

ECON221 Chapter Notes - Chapter 8-10: Ken Wilber, Regression Fallacy, Scatter Plot

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