PHL145H5 Chapter Notes - Chapter 16: Bioethics, Conjunction Fallacy, Blaise Pascal
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This only works with cases that are equally likely or fair. This creates a generalization: frequencies get translated into probabilities. Eg: record frequency of people over 50 with heart attack and that is the probability. Some outcomes are more likely than others to occur but even so they are probabilistic. If you believe in something very little (your professor is an alien- a: than 1-pr(a) = very high, pr (a or a not) = 1, pr (a and a not) = 0. 16. 1. 4- how can we comprehend such small numbers. The only thing we can do is standardize it into our own range (like having a higher probability of dying on the way to the airport than actually dying on an airplane) Probability is a big thing but so is the cost and benefit (disvalue and value) The expected values change based on the probability.
