ECO101H1 Chapter 5: Tut 5 Ch5
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At 8:30 AM, Washington DC time, on Friday, February 5, 2016, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) made the following announcement:
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- January 2016
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries led by retail trade, food services, and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. Employment declined in private educational services, transportation and warehousing, and mining.
9a) How does the BLS determine the unemployment rate for January 2016?
9b) How does the BLS determine the employment rate?
Right after the BLS announced the employment level and the unemployment rate for January 2016, a bunch of Wall Street analysts offered their opinions about what Ms. Janet Yellen, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, next steps would be. The majority of the analysts stated that Ms. Yellen will keep current interest rates as they are in March 2016 and will raise rates in the third quarter of 2016. Their opinions are based on the following:
Unemployment Rate |
Employment Increase |
|
October 2015 |
5.0% |
295,000 |
November 2015 |
5.0% |
280,000 |
December 2015 |
5.0% |
262,000 |
January 2016 |
4.9% |
151,000 |
However, other analysts believe that Ms. Yellen will not change the current level of interest rates until the end of 2016 due to the economic slowdown and uncertainties in Europe, China, and other Asian countries.
9c) Please provide your opinions on which direction Ms. Yellen should take and why?
1. You are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality.
Quarter Seasonal Index Seasonally Adjusted Data
Q1 .80 295
Q2 .85 299
Q3 1.15 270
Q4 --- 271
2. One model of exponential smoothing will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing?
A. Alpha and Delta
B. Delta and Gamma
C. Alpha and Gamma
D. Standard Deviation and Mean
3. When performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of correlation coefficient.
A. Ho: r = .05 p < .5
B. Ho: r = 0 p >.05
C. Ho: r ? 0 p?.05
D. Ho: r = 0 p?.05
In decomposition what does the cycle factor (CF) of .80 represent for a monthly forecast estimate of a Y variable? |
A. The estimated value is 80% of the average monthly seasonal estimate.
B. The estimate is .80 of the forecasted Y trend value.
C. The estimated value is .80 of the historical average CMA values.
D. The estimated value has 20% more variation than the average historical Y data values.
5. A Wendy's franchise owner notes that the sales per store has fallen below the stated national Wendy's outlet average of $1,368,000. He asserts a change has occurred that reduced the fast food eating habits of Americans. What is his hypothesis (H1) and what type of test for significance must be applied? |
A. H1: u ? $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
B. H1: u = $1,368,000 A two-tailed t-test.
C. H1: u < $1,368,000 A one-tailed t-test to the left.
D. H1: p < $1,368,000 A one-tailed test to the right
A. The rejection region and the t-table value generally gets smaller for sample size below 31. |
A. Yes. The data are significantly correlated through the 12th lag. C. No. Only the 12 lag period is not correlated. D. You cannot tell since the number of sample observations is not provided. E. The p-value is above .05 so the data is correlated. |
A. Type 2 error |
A. Yes. They move in the same direction as statistical significance. |
A. The weight cannot be calculated since the data observation is not given. |
A. Yes. The correlation coefficient is .873 that is greater than .05. |
A. Yes, since the residuals randomly vary in magnitude. |
A. -101.0 |
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