ECON C175 Chapter Notes - Chapter (Week 9): Total Fertility Rate
Week 9: Oe-Child Poli
Hesketh: The Effet of Chia’s Oe-Child Family Policy After 25 Years
• The Chinese government claimed that it was a short-term measure and that the goal was to move
toward a voluntary small-family culture
• The government saw strict population containment as essential to economic reform and to an
improvement in living standards
• Regulations include restrictions on family size, late marriage and childbearing, and the spacing of
children
• The one-child rule applies to a minority of the population; for urban residents and government
employees, the policy is strictly enforced, with few exceptions
o The exceptions include families in which the first child has a disability or both parents work in
high-risk occupations (such as mining) or are themselves from one-child families (in some
areas)
• The policy depends on virtually universal access to contraception and abortion
• The policy itself is probably only partially responsible for the reduction in the total fertility rate. The
most dramatic decrease in the rate actually occurred before the policy was imposed
• The potentially disastrous social consequences of this sex imbalance. The shortage of women may
have increased mental health problems and socially disruptive behavior among men and has left
some men unable to marry and have a family
• First, relaxation of the policy can be considered only if fertility aspirations are such that a baby boom
will not result. There is now good evidence that China is becoming a small-family culture
• Increased wealth and freedom also make it harder for the government to enforce the policy
• Several options for the future have been suggested. One possibility is that everyone could be allowed
to have up to two children, with a space of at least five years between them. It has been predicted
that this option would yield a total fertility rate of 1.7 during the next two decades, which would help
to normalize the sex ratio, reduce the 4:2:1 phenomenon, and be acceptable to the majority of
people
• In 2002 it was announced that there would be no fundamental policy changes but that certain
aspects of policy implementation would be relaxed. For example, couples are to be allowed choice in
contraceptive methods as part of so-called client-centered family-planning services
Livingston: In a Down Economy, Fewer Births
• A sharp decline in fertility rates in the United States that started in 2008 is closely linked to the souring
of the
economy that began about the same time
• Hispanics, whose employment levels and household wealth were particularly hard hit by the Great
Reessio, hae epeieed the lagest fetilit delies of the atio’s thee ajo aial ad
ethnic groups
• Conversely, the smaller birth rate declines among whites could reflect the fact that they were less hard
hit by the recession than were Hispanics or blacks
• It’s tpiall uite diffiult to deteie if eooi hages ae ausig fetilit hages, sie othe
soial ad ultual fatos a also e at pla, suh as hages i oe’s lao foe
participation, contraceptive technology, and public policy
• However, there is historical evidence of a link between economic cycles and fertility in the U.S.
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Document Summary
The most dramatic decrease in the rate actually occurred before the policy was imposed: the potentially disastrous social consequences of this sex imbalance. There is now good evidence that china is becoming a small-family culture. Increased wealth and freedom also make it harder for the government to enforce the policy: several options for the future have been suggested. One possibility is that everyone could be allowed to have up to two children, with a space of at least five years between them. In 2002 it was announced that there would be no fundamental policy changes but that certain aspects of policy implementation would be relaxed. For example, couples are to be allowed choice in contraceptive methods as part of so-called client-centered family-planning services. Conversely, older women are less likely to say that they have postponed fertility due to economic declines.
