30271 Eve DeAngelis January 8, 2014.docx

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Department
Earth & Environmental Sciences
Course
ENVR 1104
Professor
Malcolm D Hill
Semester
Spring

Description
1 1/8/14 Natural Disasters and Catastrophes ENVR 1104 CRN: 30271 Chapter 1: Natural Hazards and Disasters • Hazard: - A natural process becomes a natural disaster when it poses a threat to human life or property - A natural hazard then becomes a disaster when there are significant damages and casualties • Predictions: - A prediction does not account for probability - Magnitude and frequency curves allow someone to make a prediction - For example, some volcanoes erupt on a fairly consistent pattern, so you can predict that the probability of a future eruption will grow at that location, every year closer to the “cyclic eruption pattern” that you go • Forecasts: - Normally pitched in terms of probability - Reoccurrence intervals- forecasts can be expressed as a reoccurrence interval- the probability that a natural event of a certain size will occur is based off of past records for example: a 50 year flood, or a 100 year earthquake • Feedback loops: - Positive feedback loop= when the increase in one factor (A), causes a change in other environmental factors, ultimately increasing “A” even more  Ex: global warming causes more rapid melting of the arctic sea, the resulting darker sea water absorbs more of the suns energy than the white ice does
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