GVPT 200 Chapter Notes - Chapter May 2: Syrian Democratic Forces, Friendly Fire, Hawija
6 May 2018
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International Relations: May 2nd Readings
• “How ISIS Is Transforming” by Colin P. Clarke
o The Iraqi military have expelled ISIS fighters from key cities such as Fallujah,
Ramadi, Tal Afar, and Mosul. Syrian Democratic Forces have retaken most of
Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS.
o Russian troops and Syrian regime forces have taken Deir Ezzor.
o There are reports of dissent and infighting within the ranks of ISIS forces as well
as low morale.
o While ISIS has been forced to change its strategy and tactics, it has been
preparing for the next stage of conflict. ISIS is transitioning from a self-
proclaimed state to a terrorist group.
o Local police and militaries capable of operating within Sunni enclaves are
nonexistent in Syria and often too sectarian in Iraq. 22% of Iraqi Sunni Arabs do
not trust the government to treat them as it does Arab Shi’ites.
o ISIS will likely shift its resources to augment its affiliate groups in Afghanistan,
Libya, Yemen, and Sinai. It will also seek to gain entry into territories
sympathetic to its Salafist ideology, such as the northern Caucasia.
o ISIS groups in Libya have regrouped into smaller cells after the fall of Sirte.
o ISIS’s Afghanistan network has grown considerably and it has claimed
responsibility for several sectarian attacks, including a suicide attack against a
Shi’ite mosque in Kabul.
o ISIS’s activities have also increase in the Egyptian Sinai peninsula despite the
Egyptian government receiving funds from the U.S. for counterterrorism.
o ISIS will likely continue to orchestrate spectacular attacks in the West to draw
attention and prove that they are resilient in the face of suppression. Turkey will
likely act as a logistical hub.
▪ Encrypted communications will likely be used to direct these attacks, even
as the group becomes less centralized.
▪ ISIS has become adept at branding failures as successes; they “sold” the
failed Parsons Green attack in London as proof that they could strike the
United Kingdom for the fourth time in six months, despite their bomb
failing to kill anyone.
• “Would Arming Syria’s Rebels Have Stopped the Islamic State?” by Marc Lynch
o The Obama administration considered arming Syrian rebels as a “Plan C.”
o Generally, the academic literature holds that foreign support for rebels almost
always prolongs wars, increases casualties, and makes them harder to resolve.
▪ The University of Maryland’s David Cunningham points out that the
Syrian Civil War is of the type in which external support for rebels would
be least effective.
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