ECON10003 Lecture Notes - Lecture 23: Exchange Rate, Xm Satellite Radio, Floating Exchange Rate

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MACROECONOMICS WEEK 12
Exchange rate adjustment
Consequences of exchange rate movement:
Consequences of depreciation:
-Inflation: lower value of its currency in a country, must give up more of its currency to unit of foreign
currency. Prices of imports of G&S will increase.
i. If imported goods are final the CPI will increase. If they are capital goods PPI will increase. If
intermediate goods, PPI will increase
ii. If imported goods are final capital or intermediate goods, domestic costs of production will increase
and firms may increase prices to maintain profit margins.
iii. Domestic producers of goods, whether final or intermediate, competing with imports, will be able to
raise their prices without losing market share to foreign competitors.
-Increased value of foreign debt and increased debt servicing: foreign debt will increase if AUD depreciated
against foreign currency. There is also interest which has to be paid by the borrower to lender, where the
interest will also increase is the value of the AUD against the foreign currency depreciates. AS interest
payment is recorded as primary income in the current account, both the net primary income balance and
current account balance would worsen other things being equal.
-Possible improvement in trade balance: Australian exports may increase as if AUD depreciates against
foreign currency it is cheaper for the foreign country to buy from Australia. For the same reason, demand for
imports will decrease. If value of exports increases, and value of imports decreases, trade balance will
improve, in terms of the value of each trade and dependent on the elasticity of demand for each. If the demand
for each were inelastic, the value of imports and exports would remain the same.
-A possible increase in net exports: If there is an improvement in the trade balance, there is an increase in net
exports (X – M)- a component of AD. A depreciation of the exchange rate will lead to an increase in AD and
in turn GDP and employment, with consequent reduction in the unemployment rate. If the economy is already
growing rapidly and is close to full employment, the increase in net exports following depreciation may lead
to increased inflation rather than increased output.
-Change in the distribution of income by sector of the economy: if value of exports increases, the income from
the export sector will increase. If imports decrease, domestic demand will switch to the import-competing
sector and income of this sector will increase in terms of profits and wages. To produce more output, more
labour will be employed and increased demand for labour will increase the wage rate in these sectors (at the
expense of Australian consumers). Aus. Consumers will have to pay higher prices for imports and for some
domestically produced goods. As higher prices are being obtained for imports, Aus producers may rise the
price of these goods in Aus.
Fixed or floating exchange rate?
Fixed:
1. Eliminates uncertainty in international transactions. Avoids price changes and unexpected capital gains and
losses due to exchange rate movement. Encourages trade and economic growth.
2. Avoids inflation due to depreciation.
3. Avoids loss of international competitiveness due to appreciation
4. Fixed rate imposes greater accountability on government in the conduct of its economic policy.
Floating:
1. Avoids the problem of deciding the level at which to fix
2. Allows for an independent monetary policy
3. Reduces speculation- as with previous years, fixed exchange rates saw countries prices and costs moving out
of line with competitors as a result of uneven but high rates of inflation.
4. Insulates a country from terms of trade fluctuations due to frequent changes in export commodity prices
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Document Summary

Inflation: lower value of its currency in a country, must give up more of its currency to unit of foreign currency. Prices of imports of g&s will increase. i. ii. iii. If imported goods are final the cpi will increase. If they are capital goods ppi will increase. If imported goods are final capital or intermediate goods, domestic costs of production will increase and firms may increase prices to maintain profit margins. Domestic producers of goods, whether final or intermediate, competing with imports, will be able to raise their prices without losing market share to foreign competitors. Increased value of foreign debt and increased debt servicing: foreign debt will increase if aud depreciated against foreign currency. There is also interest which has to be paid by the borrower to lender, where the interest will also increase is the value of the aud against the foreign currency depreciates.

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