PSYC20007 Lecture Notes - Spring 2017 Lecture 5 - Daniel Kahneman, Bank teller, Hot-hand fallacy
20 Sep 2018
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Bounded rationality humans reason and choose rationally but only within the constraints imposed by their limited search and computational capacities. Clinical prediction performs very poorly relative to statistical prediction. Clinical prediction overweights case characteristics and underweights based rates: the two systems and question substitution, dual-process theories of higher cognition, system 1 intuitive, fast, non-conscious and automatic. Proposed mechanism: question substitution (strack et al. , 1988) Instead of seeking the answer to some complex questions, seek the answer to an easier question you believe to be related. Providing rewards to motivate participants to check their intuitive impressions. Ensure that participants are not simultaneously having to perform other kinds of mental effort. Increase metacognitive difficulty (commonly cited but known to not work: three general-purpose heuristics, representative heuristic probability judgments are substituted with assessments of resemblance. Representativeness is an assessment of the degree of correspondence between an outcome and a model.
