PHIL2420 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Randomness, Causal Loop
4 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
PHIL2420(
2(
2.(Causal(Reasoning(
(
Chapter(14(Mill’s(Methods(
14.1(The(Method(of(Agreement(
− If(two(or(more(situations(leading(to(an(effect(E(has(only(one(event(C(in(common,(then(C(is(the(cause(of(
E(
− E.g.(despite(their(different(backgrounds,(it(was(discovered(that(all(AIDS(patients(have(been(infected(
by(HIV.(So(HIV(causes(AIDS(
Situation(
Candidate(Causes(
Effect(
(
A(
B(
C(
E(
1(
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! (
2(
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3(
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14.2(The(Method(of(Difference(
− If(one(group(of(situations(leads(to(an(effect(E,(but(another(group(does(not,(and(the(only(difference(
between(two(groups(is(that(C(is(present(in(the(former(but(not(the(latter,(then(C(is(the(cause(of(E(
− E.g.(a(mobile(phone(is(not(working,(but(it(works(fine(when(the(battery(is(replaced.(Since(the(only(thing(
that(changed(was(the(battery,(it(is(probably(the(cause(
Situation(
Candidate(Causes(
Effect(
(
A(
B(
C(
E(
1(
! (
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! (
! (
2(
! (
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3(
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14.3(The(Joint(Method(
− Suppose(one(group(of(situations(leads(to(an(effect(E,(but(another(group(does(not.(If(C(is(the(only(factor(
common(to(situations(in(the(first(group,(and(it(is(also(the(only(factor(that(is(absent(from(all(the(
situations(in(the(second(group,(then(C(is(the(cause(of(E.(
− Situations(1(and(2(have(more(than(one(candidate(cause(in(common,(so(no(conclusion(can(be(drawn(
about(the(cause.(
Situation(
Candidate(Causes(
Effect(
(
A(
B(
C(
D(
E(
1(
! (
! (
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2(
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3(
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14.4(The(Method(of(Concomitant(Variations(
− If(variation(in(some(factor(C(is(followed(by(variation(in(an(effect(E,(then(C(is(the(cause(of(E(
− To(show(an(effect(exists,(a(doseMresponse(relationship(is(used,(e.g.(higher(doses(of(painkillers(reduce(
pain(
Situation(
Candidate(Cause(
Effect(
(
C(
E(
1(
! (
! (
2(
! (x2(
! (x2(
3(
! x3(
! x3(
14.5(The(Method(of(Residues(
− If(a(set(of(conditions(causes(a(range(of(effects,(and(some(of(the(effects(can(be(explained(by(some(of(the(
earlier(conditions,(then(the(remaining(effects(are(caused(by(the(other(remaining(conditions.(
− E.g.(2(books(are(missing(from(your(room,(and(only(2(people(have(been(there.(One(confesses(to(
borrowing(one(book(so(the(other(must(have(borrowed(the(other(book(
14.6(Limitations(of(Mill’s(Method(
− True(cause(might(not(be(any(of(the(candidate(causes(
− The(effect(might(have(more(than(one(cause(
