ECON204 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Interest Rate Parity, Nominal Interest Rate, Australian Dollar

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17 May 2018

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Topic 11

Mundell-Fleming model

• What determines the exchange rate?

• How can policy makers affect exchange rates?

Goods Market Equilibrium - IS

In this chapter we make two simplifications:

• As in the short-run IS-LM model, both the domestic and the foreign price levels are given

(and equal); thus, the nominal and the real exchange rate move together. We can let E = ε.

• There is no inflation, neither actual nor expected. So, r = i. Both the real and the nominal

interest rate effect demand

Output depends negatively on the interest rate and the exchange rate, among other factors.

Financial Market Equilibrium - LM

In an open economy, the demand for domestic money is mostly a demand by domestic residents,

who continue to hold domestic money for transaction purposes. Therefore we can still use:

M/P = YL(i)

Assume the central bank chooses the interest rate for its monetary policy; so M becomes

endogenous. For simplicity assume that i is fixed at i0.

Domestic bonds vs foreign bonds

• If there was perfect capital mobility (they are free to choose) and we can assume perfect

asset substitute ability (risk is not an issue), then investors choose the combination of

domestic and foreign bonds with highest expected return.

• This implies that in equilibrium, both domestic bonds and foreign bonds must have the same

expected rate of return, otherwise, investors would be willing to hold only one of the other.

This assumption implies the interest parity condition:

tt E

*)1(1

+=+

This implies (because of iestos demand)

• positive relation between domestic interest rate and the exchange rate

• negative relationship between foreign interest rate and exchange rate

• positive relationship between future and current exchange rate

Implications of Interest Parity

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( i )

=−

Remarks:

• The more the dollar appreciates now, the more investors expect it to depreciate over time in

the future.

• If i rises, the initial A$ appreciation must be such that the expected future depreciation

exactly compensates for the increase in the Australian interest rate. When this is the case,

investors are again indifferent and equilibrium prevails.

Limits of the Interest Parity Condition

• Investors not only care about expected return, but also about risk and liquidity

o Sudden stops are when foreig iestos peeptios of isk ake the sell all the

assets they have in a country, no matter the interest rate. This causes the interest

parity condition to fail.

o The preference for US T-bills becomes stronger in crisis times or times of

uncertainty, as the US is widely seen by investors as a safe haven.

The IS-LM Model in an open economy

Changes in the interest rate (ie monetary policy) affect the economy

• Directly through investment: this effect is also present in the closed economy.

• Indirectly through the exchange rate: this is only present in an open economy.

Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy

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• Assuming that the interest rate stays constant, the increase in government spending would

push the euiliiu to poit A, leaig the ehage ate i uaffeted.

• If the central bank raises the interest rate to fight the inflation caused by higher inflation,

equilibriu is at A″, and the exchange rate appreciates to E″. In the short run:

o The higher i and stronger E act to reduce the effect on output

o The effect on investment is ambiguous --- output rises and interest rate rises

o The trade balance is worse:

---exports fall due to stronger E; imports rise due to stronger E and higher Y.

Monetary Policy in an Open Economy

• A monetary policy contraction leads an increase in interest rate, decrease in output, and an

appreciation of the domestic currency.

• The increase in the interest rate shifts neither the IS curve nor the interest-parity curve.

Fixed Exchange Rates

• Some central banks act under implicit and explicit exchange-rate targets, and use monetary

policy to achieve those targets.

o Some peg their currency to the US dollar, to other currencies, or to a basket of

currencies, with weights reflecting the composition of their trade.

o Some countries operate under a crawling peg. If their domestic price level rises

faster than the U.S. price level, the country faces a real appreciation that can rapidly

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Document Summary

In this chapter we make two simplifications: as in the short-run is-lm model, both the domestic and the foreign price levels are given (and equal); thus, the nominal and the real exchange rate move together. We can let e = : there is no inflation, neither actual nor expected. Both the real and the nominal interest rate effect demand. Output depends negatively on the interest rate and the exchange rate, among other factors. In an open economy, the demand for domestic money is mostly a demand by domestic residents, who continue to hold domestic money for transaction purposes. Assume the central bank chooses the interest rate for its monetary policy; so m becomes endogenous. For simplicity assume that i is fixed at i0. This implies (because of i(cid:374)(cid:448)esto(cid:396)s(cid:859) demand: positive relation between domestic interest rate and the exchange rate, negative relationship between foreign interest rate and exchange rate, positive relationship between future and current exchange rate.

Related Questions

All the questions from "Output, Exchange Rates, Macroeconomic Policy, and Open-economy IS-LM-FX Model."

Please answer these questions completely. It is important to me.

Thanks!

6. The TB (i.e., EX â IM) is part of the short-run spending equation. With sticky prices, what would be the effect on the TB with an increase (depreciation) of the home nation's exchange rate?

A. Consumers in the home nation would find it more expensive to buy domestic goods compared to foreign goods, and the trade balance would decrease.

B. Consumers in the home nation would cut back on both domestic and foreign goods and the trade balance would decrease.

C. Consumers in the home nation would increase spending on both domestic and foreign goods, and the trade balance would be unchanged.

D. Consumers in the home nation would increase spending on domestic goods and decrease spending on foreign goods, causing the trade balance to increase.

11. A shift to the left by the IS curve can be achieved by all of the following EXCEPT a(n):

A. decrease in government spending.

B. increase in taxes.

C. increase in the foreign interest rate.

D. decrease in future expected exchange rate Ee.

13. The LM curve will shift to the left, if there is a(n):

A. increase in money supply.

B. increase in interest rate.

C. decrease in money supply.

D. increase in output.

14. If taxes fall and foreign income falls, what will happen to output, ceteris paribus?

A. It will rise.

B. It will stay the same.

C. It will fall.

D. It is uncertain what will happen.

15. Using the IS-LM-FX framework, if we observe that income and interest rate both rise in the Eurozone, this could be the result of

A. contractionary monetary policy pursued by the European Central Bank.

B. expansionary monetary policy pursued by the Federal Reserve System (U.S. central bank).

C. a stock market crash in the Eurozone.

D. increases in government spending in the Eurozone.

18. Whenever U.S. government spending increases,

A. output will not change at all if the U.S. fixes the exchange rate of dollar against major currencies.

B. output will increase by a larger amount when dollar floats than when dollar pegs to other currencies.

C. output will increase by a smaller amount when dollar floats than when dollar pegs to other currencies.

D. output will not change at all since the U.S. adopts a flexible exchange rate.

The demand for money
A) d and e are correct
B) all of the following are correct
C) decreases as the average selling price of a unit of outputincreases
D) increases as GDP increases
E) is increased by credit card usage
2. The higher the interest rate, the more of their wealth peoplewill hold as money.
A) True
B) False
3. The money demand curve slopes
A) downward because the cost of holding money decreases as theinterest rate decreases
B) downward because the cost of holding money increases as theinterest rate decreases
C) upward because people demand more money as GDP increases
D) upward because people demand more money as GDP decreases
E) downward because people demand more money as the price levelincreases
4. Which of the following, other things constant, will shift themoney demand curve to the left?
A) an increase in the interest rate
B) a decrease in the interest rate
C) a decrease in real GDP
D) an increase in real GDP
E) an increase in the price level
5. An increase in the money supply will
A) increase the demand for money at each interest rate
B) decrease the demand for money at each interest rate
C) lead people to try to exchange money for interest-bearingassets
D) lead people to try to exchange interest-bearing assets formoney
E) increase the interest rate
6. When an increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate,investment and nominal GDP increase.
A) True
B) False
7. In the short run, a decrease in the money supply will cause adecrease in Gross Domestic Product and a decrease in the pricelevel.
A) True
B) False
8. The demand curve for investment is graphed with __________ onthe vertical axis and __________ on the horizontal axis.
A) the interest rate; investment
B) investment; the interest rate
C) the price level; investment
D) investment; the price level
E) real GDP; investment
9. As the interest rate increases,
A) the demand for investment curve shifts to the right
B) the demand for investment curve shifts to the left
C) there is a movement downward along the demand for investmentcurve
D) there is a movement upward along the demand for investmentcurve
E) GDP increases
10. If the economy experiences a contractionary gap and the Fedstimulates the economy, then:
A) The money supply is increasing because the Fed prints moremoney
B) The money supply is decreasing because the Fed hoardsmoney
C) The money supply is increasing because the Fed makes open-marketpurchases
D) The money supply is decreasing because the Fed makes open-marketsales
E) There is no change in the money supply because the Fed cannotinfluence the money supply
11. If the Fed decreases the money supply, GDP
A) increases because the resulting increase in the interest rateleads to a decrease in investment
B) increases because the resulting decrease in the interest rateleads to an increase in investment
C) decreases because the resulting increase in the interest rateleads to a decrease in investment
D) decreases because the resulting increase in the interest rateleads to an increase in investment
E) decreases because the resulting decrease in the interest rateleads to an increase in investment
12. An increase in the money supply can increase the price level,real GDP, or both, but it is impossible to tell exactly what willhappen without knowing the slope of the aggregate supplycurve.
A) True
B) False
13. If the economy experiences an expansionary gap and the Fedsells US government securities in the open-market, then:
A) Money supply increases, investment increases, aggregate demandincreases
B) Money supply increases, the interest rate increases, and theaggregate demand increases
C) Money supply decreases, the interest rate decreases, and theaggregate demand falls
D) Money supply decreases, the investment decreases, and theaggregate demand decreases
E) Interest rate falls, investment falls, aggregate demandincreases
14. If the money supply equals $1,000 and nominal GDP equals$3,000, then V
A) equals 1/3
B) equals 3
C) equals 3 million
D) cannot be determined since we do not know anything aboutprices
E) cannot be determined since we do not know anything about realGDP
15. If the money supply is increasing at a constant 8 percent,velocity is constant, real GDP is increasing at 5 percent, and theinflation rate is 3 percent, which of the following is true?
A) The growth rate of GDP is too low to be maintained.
B) The inflation rate is too low to be maintained.
C) Velocity is too low to be maintained.
D) The money supply growth rate is too low to be maintained.
E) This situation can continue indefinitely.
16. If real output and velocity are stable and predictable, thenthe equation of exchange can be used to derive a simplerelationship between
A) the money supply and the price level
B) the money supply and the interest rate
C) the money supply and the foreign exchange rate
D) velocity and real GDP
E) velocity and nominal GDP
17. For the quantity theory of money to yield usefulpredictions,
A) fiscal policy must be ineffective in altering aggregatedemand
B) fiscal policy must be effective in altering aggregatedemand
C) the economy must be operating at the potential level of realGross Domestic Product
D) velocity must be stable or predictable
E) velocity must be unstable
18. A rising rate of inflation
A) makes people more willing to hold money as an asset
B) reduces the usefulness of money as a store of value and thusincreases the velocity of money
C) increases the usefulness of money as a medium of exchange andthus reduces the velocity of money
D) is usually preceded by a reduction in the money supply
E) does not, apparently, have any effect on the velocity ofmoney
19. There is considerable disagreement about whether the Fedshould
A) engage in open market operations
B) have the power to set reserve requirements
C) reduce the money supply when the economy is growing
D) allow banks to invest in the stock market
E) attempt to control interest rates or should instead attempt tocontrol the money supply
20. For interest rates to remain stable during economic expansions,the growth rate of the money supply should
A) exceed the growth in the demand for money
B) just match the growth in the demand for money
C) be less than the growth in the demand for money
D) be zero
E) just match the growth in nominal GDP

salmonpug424

Question 1

The higher the capital utilization rate, the greater the depreciation rate.

True

False

Question 2

Higher capital utilization rates may raise the user costs of capital because higher utilization rates imply

operating at inconvenient times.

paying overtime to employees operating the machines.

operating when complementary services like transporters are unavailable or more expensive.

All of the above.

Question 3

If the rental price of capital increase, the capital utilization rate

increases.

decreases.

remains the same.

depends on whether the substitution rate is greater than the income effect

Question 4

The vacancy rate in the labor market is

the number of job openings divided by the number of unemployed people in the labor force.

the number of job openings divided by the number of workers in the labor force.

the ratio of open jobs to filled jobs.

the ratio of open jobs to the total number of jobs that employers want occupied.

Question 5

Unemployment can exist in a market clearing model if it takes some search time for workers to find jobs.

True

False

Question 6

A decrease in workersâ effective real incomes while they are unemployed will

lower the job finding rate and raise the expected duration of unemployment.

lower the job finding rate and the expected duration of unemployment.

raise the job finding rate and lower the expected duration of unemployment.

raise the job finding rate and the expected duration of unemployment.

Question 7

In the Barro model, the natural rate of unemployment is

zero.

fixed.

Question 8

If the interest rate increases, the real demand for money also increases

True

False

Question 9

Commodity money is money that has value because

of the intrinsic value of the commodity.

it is legal tender.

the government says so.

All of the above.

Question 10

High-powered money is

money held by business for investment.

total currency in circulation plus depository institution deposits at the Fed.

total currency in circulation.

government bonds held by the public and depository institutions.

Question 11

U.S. M1 money includes

currency held by the public.

checkable deposits.

travelerâs checks.

All of the above.

Question 12

U.S. M2 money includes

currency, time deposits, and government bonds.

savings deposits, small time deposits, and private bonds.

checkable deposits, savings deposits, and small time deposits.

retail money market mutual funds, small time deposits, and government bonds.

Question

Money is different from other assets like capital and bonds in that

money does not pay interest.

money has intrinsic value.

money is a better long term store of value.

All of the above.

Question

If a personâs income doubles, we expect their cash holdings to

Question 15

Real money demand does not change when

nominal GDP changes.

the interest rate changes.

the price level changes.

All of the above.

Question 16

All else constant, the price level rises when the supply of money increases.

True

False

Question 17

If the nominal interest rate were to increase, then

money demand decreases and the price level increases.

money demand increases and the price level decreases.

the money supply and the price level would increase.

the money supply and the price level would decrease.

Question 18

Real money demand is a function of real GDP and the nominal interest rate.

True

False

Question 19

The real return on money is zero.

True

False

Question 20

If the expected inflation rate is 5% and the unexpected inflation rate is 4%, the actual inflation is

-1%

1.25%

Question 21

When the rate of growth of money is constant

the inflation rate equals the growth rate of money.

the nominal interest rate rises.

real money balances are declining.

All of the above.

Question 22

A decrease in the money growth rate in the market clearing model causes

a decrease in the nominal interest rate.

an increase in money demand.

a decrease in the price level.

All of the above.

Question 23

A decrease in the money growth rate in the market clearing model causes

an increase in the nominal interest rate.

an increase in money demand.

an increase in the price level.

All of the above.

Question 24

Under price level targeting the money supply becomes

Q 25 During a recession, the interest rate falls tending to cause money demand to rise, but is at least partly offset by real GDP falling tending to cause money demand to fall.

True

False

ECON204 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Interest Rate Parity, Nominal Interest Rate, Australian Dollar

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