ECON1020 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Foreign Portfolio Investment, Technological Change, Longrun

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Lecture 5 - The Very Long Run: Economic Growth
Thursday, 22 March 2018
2:00 PM
<<ECON1020 Lecture 5.pdf>>
The very long run is when all factors have changed, e.g. labour, capital and technology
Economic growth is the growth rate of real GDP or real GDP per person
According to economic theory, the only way to have sustained economic growth (real GDP
per person) is through sustained technological change
Small differences in growth rates are important
o Economists use rule of 70 as an approximation to show how long it takes for income
to double in size
No. of years to double = 70/growth rate (%)
o This rule shows the impact of growth
Economies can be grouped
o High income countries (industrialised) - 1st
o Developing countries - 3rd
o Newly industrialising countries - 2nd
Most prominent and successful theory of economic growth is known as the Solow-Swan
Model
o Whole heap of equations just look at the slides
o
o This model predicts declining growth rates as an economy develops
o Eventually the growth rate will be 0 and the economy will reach a steady state
where income is at its highest possible sustainable level
o This is in the absence of technological changes
o Growth occurs when savings is greater than depreciation
o As k increases, this increases both output (y) and depreciation (0.1k)
o Quite a bit of word analysis
Introducing technological change to the model
o A is an index to the level of technology an economy has
o More equations just look at slides
o The growth rate here steadily declines until it reaches the growth rate of
technological change, never reaches a steady state
Technological change helps economies avoid diminishing returns to capital
New growth theory is a model of long-run economic growth that emphasises that
technological change is influenced by economic incentives, and so is determined by the
working of the market system
o Accumulation of knowledge capital is a determinant in economic growth
o Government policy increases the accumulation of knowledge capital
Protecting intellectual property rights
Subsidising research and development
Subsidising education
o Entrepreneurs are central to economic growth because they create technological
changes
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