ECON 3P03 Lecture Notes - Irving Fisher, Real Interest Rate, Business Cycle

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19 Dec 2013

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Factors that shift the supply of bonds to the right lead to lower bond prices and higher bond yields, other things equal. Changes in ^e: the fisher effect if ^e : relative expected return on bonds (compared to the return on real assets such as housing and gold), Price of bonds, p interest rate, i: cost of borrowing (real interest rate = i - ^e) , b^s shifts to the right, p , i (unambiguously) (p increases ) When expected inflation rises, interest rates will rise. (i increases ) This observation was made by irving fisher and is named after him as the fisher effect. If b^s shifts more than b^d then p , i . If b^s shifts less than b^d then p , i evidence on the fisher effect is mixed. Business cycle expansion: wealth , b^d shifts to the right. (p increases )

Related Questions

11.1 The four fundamental factors that affect the supply and demand for investment capital that affect interest rates are investment opportunities, time preferences for consumption, risk, and inflation. Explain how each of these factors affects the cost of money.

11.2 The interest rate required by investors on a debt security can be expressed by the following equation:

Interest rate = RRF + IP + DRP + LP + MRP + CRP. Define each term of the equation, and explain how it affects the interest rate.

11.3 Briefly describe the following types of debt: a. Term loan b. Bond c. Mortgage bond d. Senior debt; junior debt, e. Debenture f. Municipal bond

11.4 Indenture Restrictive covenant Trustee Call provision (1) (2) (3) (4). What are the three primary bond rating agencies? What do bond ratings measure? How do investors interpret bond ratings? What is the difference between an A-rated bond and a B-rated bond? Why are bond ratings important to investors? Why are ratings important to businesses that issue bonds?

11.5 What is interest rate risk? What is price risk? What is a reinvestment rate risk?

11.6 Is this statement true or false? The values of outstanding bonds change whenever the going rate of interest changes. In general, short-term interest rates are more volatile than long-term rates, so short-term bond prices are more sensitive to interest rate changes than are long-term bond prices. Explain your answer.

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1.Ceteris paribus, if the U.S. federal government reduces its budget deficit which of the following will be observed?

Answer

	a.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the right.
	b.	The economy will always approach potential GDP.
	c.	The marginal propensity to consume will increase.
	d.	The average price level will increase.
	e.	The aggregate demand curve will shift to the left.

2. If the government wants to close a GDP gap, it can:

Answer

	a.	lower government spending on social security.
	b.	adopt contractionary fiscal policies to control inflation.
	c.	increase its budget deficit.
	d.	repay its borrowings.
	e.	raise both direct and indirect tax rates.

3. Suppose the short-run equilibrium level of income exceeds the full employment level of income and there is high inflation. Hence, the government decides to implement a fiscal policy that will act to reduce national output and price level. This can be accomplished by:

Answer

	a.	lowering average tax rates such that aggregate supply is increased.
	b.	increasing government spending such that aggregate expenditures are increased.
	c.	increasing transfer payments such that aggregate expenditures decline.
	d.	raising taxes and government spending by the same amount such that aggregate supply is decreased and aggregate demand is increased.
	e.	decreasing government spending such that aggregate demand is reduced.

4. A drop in investment spending caused by increased government budget deficits is referred to as:

Answer

	a.	the multiplier effect.
	b.	crowding out.
	c.	an expansionary gap.
	d.	the paradox of thrift.
	e.	the Ricardian equivalence.

5. Discretionary fiscal policy is best defined as:

Answer

	a.	the deliberate manipulation of the money supply to expand the economy.
	b.	the deliberate change in tax laws and government spending to change equilibrium income.
	c.	the policy action taken by the Congress to reduce the federal budget deficit.
	d.	the arbitrary fluctuation in tax laws and budget requirements.
	e.	the automatic change in certain fiscal instruments when real GDP changes.

6. Which of the following can be considered as an automatic stabilizer in the economy?

Answer

	a.	Money supply
	b.	Disposable income
	c.	Real exchange rate
	d.	Real interest rate
	e.	Unemployment insurance

7. Which of the following is true about automatic stabilizers?

Answer

	a.	When income rises, automatic stabilizers increase/boost spending.
	b.	Automatic stabilizers are a part of discretionary fiscal policy.
	c.	An automatic stabilizer is any program that responds to fluctuations in the business cycle in a way that moderates the effects of those fluctuations.
	d.	Any kind of trade policy adopted by the government will be considered as an automatic stabilizer.
	e.	The interest rate is an example of an automatic stabilizer.

8. Increased budget deficits

Answer

	a.	can cause interest rates to increase and hence decrease net exports
	b.	have no effect on net exports
	c.	can cause interest rates to decrease and hence increase net exports
	d.	never impose additional interest costs on the government

9. The Ricadian Equivalence implies that when financing additional government expenditures

Answer

	a.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will decrease either way.
	b.	there is no difference between increasing current taxes or borrowing now and increasing taxes in the future because consumption will increase either way.
	c.	increasing borrowing is the best option
	d.	increasing current taxes is the best option

10. Assuming no effects on aggregate supply, if the government increases government spending and decreases taxes in an attempt to prevent a possible recession, aggregate demand will shift to the ____, the price level will either remain constant or ____, and the level of real GDP will ____.

Answer

	a.	right; decrease; increase
	b.	right; decrease; decrease
	c.	left; decrease; decrease
	d.	left; increase; increase
	e.	right; increase; increase

11. For a hypothetical economy, the MPS is 0.08 and the MPI is 0.17. If government spending increases by $35 and taxes increase by $35, what will be the net effect on equilibrium income?

Answer

	a.	A decrease of $35
	b.	An increase of $105
	c.	An increase of $35
	d.	A decrease of $105
	e.	A decrease of $15

12.12. The term fiscal policy refers to

Answer

	a.	the adjustment of the GDP for inflation.
	b.	the purchase and sale of U.S. government securities to regulate the money supply.
	c.	the use of government spending and taxation to influence the level of economic growth and inflation.
	d.	the use of fines to penalize unfair business practices.
	e.	a policy action by Congress to overrule unpopular budget cuts by the president.

13. If aggregate demand intersects aggregate supply in the vertical range of the aggregate supply curve, then, other things equal, an increase in government spending will

Answer

	a.	raise the price level and leave real GDP unchanged.
	b.	raise real GDP by the amount indicated by the government spending multiplier and leave the price level unchanged.
	c.	raise both real GDP and the price level by a multiple of the initial spending increase.
	d.	have no effect on real GDP or on the price level, because all private investment will be crowded out.
	e.	lower real GDP by an amount equal to the spending increase and reduce inflation.

14. Which of the following is not a means to finance government spending?

Answer

	a.	Government subsidies
	b.	Government debt
	c.	Capital gains taxes
	d.	Personal income taxes
	e.	Money creation

15. An automatic stabilizer is

Answer

	a.	a change in government spending aimed at achieving a policy goal.
	b.	an element of fiscal policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	c.	an element of monetary policy that automatically changes in value as real GDP changes.
	d.	a decrease in tax rates as the economy moves into a recession.
	e.	a deliberate change in taxation aimed at increasing real GDP.

16. Budget deficits tend to grow during recessions because

Answer

	a.	real GDP growth is zero, which causes neither tax receipts nor government expenditures to grow.
	b.	real GDP growth is positive, which reduces both tax receipts and transfer payments.
	c.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces transfer payments in relation to tax receipts.
	d.	real GDP growth is negative, which reduces tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.
	e.	real GDP growth is positive, which increases tax receipts in relation to government expenditures.

In the money market, money supply is determined by the central bank, such as the Fed in the U.S. Because of this, money supply curve is usually vertical in the short run, while the money demand curve is downward sloping. The quantity demanded of money has an inverse relationship with the interest rate, but a direct relationship with both the price level and real GDP. Therefore, when the general price level increases, what will most likely happen?

		A. The money demand curve will shift to the right.
		B. The money demand curve will shift to the left.
		C. Both the interest rate and investment will rise.
		D. Only A and C.
		E. Only B and C.

Suppose workers become pessimistic about their future employment, which causes them to save more and spend less. If the economy is in the Keynesian range of the aggregate supply curve, then

		A. real GDP will fall and the price level will rise.
		B. real GDP will rise and the price level will fall.
		C. only the real GDP will fall.
		D. only the price level will fall.
		E. both real GDP and the price level will fall.

Which of the following will shift the aggregate demand curve to the left?

		A. The federal government increases spending for highways and bridges.
		B. Consumers expect an economic downturn.
		C. The federal government increases income taxes.
		D. Only A and C.
		E. Only B and C.

Which of the following will shift the aggregate supply curve to the left?

		A. All workers agree to a reduction in wages.
		B. The federal government increases the gasoline taxes.
		C. An improvement in technology raises labor productivity.
		D. Only A and C.
		E. Only B and C

There are also two kinds of deflation, the demand-pull deflation and cost-push deflation. Then which of the following is most likely to be true?

		A. An increase in AD will cause the demand-pull deflation.
		B. An increase in AS (or SRAS) will cause a cost-push deflation.
		C. Economists worry about the demand-pull deflation more than the cost-push deflation.
		D. Only A and C.
		E. Only B and C.

The short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS) can be written as follows: Y = Yf + b (p - pe), where Y = real GDP, Yf = full-employment real GDP, p = price level, pe = expected price level, and b is a positive coefficient. The SRAS can be re-written as p = pe - (1/b)(Yf) + (1/b)(Y). Then which of the following is true?

		A. An increase in pe will cause a rightward shift of the SRAS curve.
		B. An increase in pe will cause a leftward shift of the SRAS curve.
		C. An increase in Yf will cause a leftward shift of the SRAS curve.
		D. Only A and C.
		E. Only B and C.

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ECON 3P03 Lecture Notes - Irving Fisher, Real Interest Rate, Business Cycle

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