PHIL 2003 Lecture Notes - Lecture 17: Statistical Syllogism, Panelling, Ceteris Paribus
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Inference to the best explanation n% of observed xs are ys. Therefore, 90% of extraverts are exceptionally happy. n% of observed xs are ys. Fact is that n% of xs are ys. The best available explanation of this fact is that 90% of extraverts are exceptionally happy. Inference to the best explanation n% of xs are ys a is x. Therefore, it is n% likely that a is y. Dave has a female gender. n% of xs are ys, and a is x. The best available explanation of these facts is that because a is x it is n% likely that a is y. Therefore, because a is x it is n% likely that a is y. A third of men have a female gender, and. The best available explanation of these facts is that because dave is a man there"s. A 1/3 likelihood dave has a female gender. A 1/3 likelihood that he has a female gender.