PSYC 2400 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Base Rate, Risk Assessment, Risk Management
3 Aug 2016
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Document Summary
Risk assessment aims to find ways to make sure assessment is: accurate, transparent, consistent. Used in a variety of contexts: sentencing decisions. Do/lto sentencing: parole decisions, risk managements/level of supervision. Risk prediction: likelihood than an offender will reoffend. Risk management: interventions/strategies to manage an offender"s risk. Both are important in the process of risk assessment. Base rate: percent (%) of offenders within the population: varies according to offence and population. High false positive rate when predicting events with low base rate: false positives = incorrect predictions, person is predicted to be violent but is not, creates difficulty for risk prevention. Risk judgment made by individual clinicians based on their own discretion: used prior to structure assessments, allows clinicians to take into account individual factors (idiographic) Week 10: no guidelines (subjective according to rater, no standardization between clinicians, low predictive accuracy (no better than chance) Traditional categorization into static and dynamic factors: risk factors. Unchanging risk factor (usually historic in nature)
