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Lecture 4

HRM 1008 Lecture 4: HRM 4012 Lecture 4: HR-Forecasting-Process

5 Pages
143 Views

Department
Human Resources Management
Course Code
HRM1008
Professor
Angie

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4 HR FORECASTING PROCESS  HR forecasting: ascertaining the net requirement for personnel by determining demand for and supply of HR now and in the future  Programs can be developed to reconcile differences b/w demand for labour and supply: T&D, career planning, R&S, managerial appraisal  Effective HR forecasting focuses on comparison b/w current KSAOs and future KSAOs for success Forecasting Activity Categories Transaction-based Forecasting  Focuses on tracking internal change instituted by organization’s managers  ie. introduction of new product that requires hiring workers for new production line Event-based Forecasting  Focuses on changes in external environment  ie. competitor introduces product that makes yours obsolete and you don’t need employees on that production line Process-based Forecasting  Not focused on specific internal organizational event but on flow of several work activities  ie. warehousing shipping process Strategic Importance of HR Forecasting 1. Reduces HR Costs  By forecasting what you need in the future, organizations can focus on obtaining best external recruits and develop internal workers  Organizations reduce costs when they take long-run planning instead of reacting in costly last-minute crisis  ie. organization didn’t plan for increase in work demands and has to pay overtime for current workers 2. Increases Organizational Flexibility  HR forecasting is proactive and increases the number of policy options available to organization  For labour supply considerations, forecasting develops program options that determine whether it’s more advantageous and cost-effective to develop current members to fill anticipated job openings or fill w/ external recruits 3. Ensures a Close Linkage to the Macro Business Forecasting Process  Business forecasting process  establishes overall organizational objectives  input into HR forecasting process o Business forecasting via environment scans to determine specific production, marketshare, profitability, operational objectives  HR forecasting confirms if business objectives can be met or need changes to meet them (ie. allocation of more resources) 1 4. Ensures That Organizational Requirements Take Precedence Over Issues of Resource Constraint and Scarcity  Demand: organization’s projected requirement for HR  Supply: source of workers to meet demand  Attainment of desired organizational goals and objectives must take priority over all issues concerning resource scarcity and other implementation issues; HR forecasting to see if you have requirements to meet organizational objectives Key Personnel Analyses Conducted by HR Forecasters 1. Specialist/Technical/Professional Personnel  Workers that hold trade qualifications high demand or that require lengthy preparatory training for attainment of skill competency are key focus  In our global economy, these workers will be in high demand by competitive firms nationally and internationally  We need to give special attention to programs to induce these workers to join our organization  With regard to supply issues, longer lead time often required to recruit technicians and professionals b/c of need for more comprehensive and larger geographic search 2. Employment Equity-Designated Group Membership  Federal and provincial gov’t in Canada enacted employment-equity legislation  Designated groups that require special attention: Aboriginals, women, person w/ disabilities, visible minorities  HR forecasting looks at supply of these members to meet employment-equity goals 3. Managerial and Executive Personnel  Organizational leaders who can transform organizational culture, anticipate external change, possess dynamic attributes to unify organization are rare  Greater attention must be paid to identifying leadership talent within organizations  Organization’s future success depends on succession and replacement planning 4. Recruits  Must determine whether to obtain trainees from internal or external workforce  Internal workforce o Advantages – rewards loyalty and past performance, diminishes need to socialize newcomers o Disadvantages – very comfortable w/ status quo so not well suited for positions w/ operations that differ substantially from established practices  External workforce o Advantages – brings insight into how competitors operate their businesses, brings in latest practices taught in universities and specialist training agencies o Disadvantages – need to socialize them  The balance of internal to external personnel is a key factor in HR forecasting Five Stages of HR Forecasting 1. Identify organizational goals, objectives, and plans 2 2. Determine overall demand requirements for personnel 3. Assess in-house skills and other internal supply characteristics 4. Determine net demand requirements that must be met from external, environmental supply sources 5. Develop HR plans and programs to ensure that right people are in the right place Environmental and Organizational Factors Affecting HR Forecasting  HR forecasting process requires specific numerical and skill competency targets for personnel to meet despite operating in circumstances of high uncertainty  This uncertainty arises from external environmental factors and inside organization HR Forecasting Time Horizons  Organizations w/ substantial resources and sizable numbers of well-trained personnel better able to handle change in environmental, economic, technological, competitive market factors o Can extend time horizon  Typical HR forecasting time horizons o Current forecast: the one being used to meet immediate operational needs of organization; extends up to end of current operating cycle or max 1 year into future o Short-run forecast: extends forward from current forecast and states HR requirements for next 1-2 years beyond current operational requirements o Medium-run forecast: extends 2-5 years into future o Long-run forecast: extremely flexible; statement of probable requirements given a set of current assumptions; extends 5+ years ahead of curr
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