POLI 244 Lecture 19: Lecture 19 - War in international politics
19 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Domestic politics and war
Every time there was a revolution or different wars in the
region, this spiked the international price of oil
-
Wars cause instability
-
War: who pays for it? Who profits from it?
Hawkish versus dovish interests
Hawkish supports war because they like the
benefits of war and someone else is paying for
the costs
§
Dovish interests take care of most of the cost of
war and tend to be against war
§
○
-
Who determined foreign policy?
State leaders
Might face incentives to go to war
§
○
The political influence of specialized bureaucracies
Might have different influences on the decision
maker (president, etc.) and they will have
dovish or hawkish interests
§
Military is a bureaucracy that favours the war
option because they get benefits
Military budget increases
□
Greater chances of moving up military
rank (medals - performance in war)
□
State department or foreign ministry
(made up of diplomats who solve issues
peacefully) try to encourage peaceful
negotiation
□
§
○
Domestic actors and collective action problems
Size
§
Organization
§
Resources
§
○
Not true that the general public always pushes the
government away from war even though they have to
pay for it (example: Nazi Germany)
○
-
The "rally effect": do leaders ever spark war to keep power
at home?
The public tends to support the leader whomever and
whatever the policies that the leader has been
implementing (boost in approval rating)
○
Diverting public attention from international crisis
that leader has not been able to find a solution to yet
(strong incentive to use war)
○
Leader from state A's benefit is boosted
Bargaining range has been reduce (war
increases)
§
Bargaining range disappears then war is
inevitable
§
○
-
How does the "rally around the flag" effect alter the
bargaining range (and this the likihood of war)
-
Leaders and war
Diversionary war (divert public attention from
domestic problems)
○
Faulkland war (1982)
Island in Argentina controlled by the British
§
Asked the government to step down and the
war was started
§
Public as a whole manifested differently in a
one week span "rally around the flag effect"
Use of nationalist card and the public
approves of decision to go to war
□
§
Margret Thatcher was very militaristic and
Britain was undergoing an economic crisis and
she was loosing power (good way for her to
boost her popularity)
§
Rally effect became a strong incentive for war
§
○
-
Crashing of the rally effect
Hard for rally effect to be sustained when war has
started
○
If you decide to go to war and win the war/lose the
war there is difference in terms of the fate of a
political leader
If won - 70% chance they will stay in power
§
If lost - 20% or less chance they will stay in
power
§
○
Not the same for democracies and autocracies
Democracies: when they win there is 70%
chance staying in power, but when lose the
chance of staying in power is 10%
§
Democratic leaders face stronger punishment
for losing the war
§
Non democratic leaders collect the benefits of
winning the war (80% if win, 50/50 chance if
lost)
§
Democratic leaders' punishment is losing power
§
Autocratic leaders' punishment is being killed or
being imprisoned
§
○
-
Domestic groups and war
War may serve the interests of some domestic groups
(hawks but not doves)
○
Groups may have selfish interests contrary to national
interests
○
Types of groups
Political parties
§
Economic interest groups
§
Ideological or ethnic interests groups
§
Bureaucratic interests
§
○
Collective action problems
Obstacles they face when acting as a single
actor as opposed to individual actors
§
Size and organization
Smaller groups tend to be better
organized
□
Larger groups suffer from free riding □
§
Resources
Not only material, but also organizational
resources
□
§
○
Groups may shape policy to support their narrow
interests
○
-
Hawks and doves
How do states calculate the costs and benefits of a
potential war?
Hawks favour war
§
Doves oppose war
§
○
-
The Kargil war and military influence in war
Influence of military had a lot to do with the Pakistani
president's decision to start the war
○
He didn’t even know he was starting the war when he
gave the orders
○
-
The united fruit company in guatemala
Government of Arbenz exporpriated companies of
the fruit company and the episode resulted in the CIA
intervening in a coup d'etat and there was another
American friendly company brought into power and
they gave the properties back
○
-
Domestic institutions and war
Effect on who is more influential/the rally effect
○
Something that effects democracies and autocracies
○
Democracies are more subjected to the demands of
the people because they depend on winning elections
to keep themselves in power
○
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Lecture 19 -War in international politics
Monday, November 6, 2017
2:37 PM
Document Summary
Every time there was a revolution or different wars in the region, this spiked the international price of oil. Hawkish supports war because they like the benefits of war and someone else is paying for the costs. Dovish interests take care of most of the cost of war and tend to be against war. Might have different influences on the decision maker (president, etc. ) and they will have dovish or hawkish interests. Military is a bureaucracy that favours the war option because they get benefits. Greater chances of moving up military rank (medals - performance in war) State department or foreign ministry (made up of diplomats who solve issues peacefully) try to encourage peaceful negotiation. Not true that the general public always pushes the. Not true that the general public always pushes the government away from war even though they have to pay for it (example: nazi germany)
