POLI 360 Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Deterrence Theory
28 Sep 2014
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O to this extent, ability and will/determination are what credibility refer to: communication in terms of signalling, you want to signal to your adversary which actions are prohibited/unacceptable and what the costs will be. Peace through deterence: for either type of deterrence to work, the front must be credible, for credibility to work, the state must have the requisite military capability. If your opponent remains risk acceptant, deterrence theory cannot succeed. Example britain and france warning hitler to not invade poland with the threat of war but he did not stand down: deterrence theory is thought to go aray during crisis situations. Ties to issues of perception and misperception studies have been conducted that under conditions of stress, decision makers do not adequately judge/appraise their adversaries preferences: you either underestimate or exaggerate what your opponents goals/wants are. There is a concern that coercive diplomacy will be misused and you will resort to the use of threats in the wrong moment.
