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265 - Week 13 – Lecture 1 - Coming Crises .docx

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Sociology (Arts)
SOCI 265
John Anthony Hall

Week 13 – Lecture 1 Sociology 265 – War, States and Social Change Coming Crises Question on high technology and war in the exam  do research for this if I wish th 10 December - revision session for 265 War and how it changes things in modern circumstances 1 – crises that may come to us now 2 – in what sense does war have a future – yes and no; possibilities for practical policies that may improve the situation  we know somethings now which we did not know before and they do help Crises - at various times since WW2 a number of things have been seen as crises that will lead to disaster – none of these have materialised o e.g. food shortages – agricultural revolution in the 3 world = India is a food exporter; difficulties in transport but not actual food production o e.g. population – the club of Rome – bound to exponentially lead to shortages of food and pressures of all sorts; not really true except for the traditional heartland of Islam countries, population is actually decreasing; boom of medicine pre-standards of living has passed for most countries; population does look as if it will stabilise = in a sense, though this will remain a difficulty, it will not be the absolute crisis that people envisaged o e.g. resources – belief that oil would disappear; no one believes this any longer o disease – always the potential for disease; moments when there was fears of pandemics e.g.Asian bird flu, AIDS o water shortages are also a potential problem - one genuine crisis though; global warming o economic growth has allowed western nations to survive – if one is a member of the working class, a revolution is unlikely since the size of the pie may be the same but the standard of living is also increasing  growth papers over the cracks of inequality; establishes a semblance of peace in a society that holds together though is not fair • newspaper – all about the restoration of growth and the politician whom can deliver growth will get elected o global warming – along with nuclear weapons – is a global phenomenon  it affects absolutely everyone = e.g. Typhoon Haiyan is probably the result of climate change  for international relations it has tremendous consequences; inside a society it is hard to have politics of distribution  growth of a bigger pie was a substitute for redistribution • imagine trying to have redistribution of some sort on the international scene  what would this mean? o China and India want to develop; caused massive detriments to the environment whilst it is also still growing e.g. half of China has not yet industrialised whilst GDP remains low o India also – if they have the same number of cars as the USA, it is wholly worrying • What can be done? Can the advanced countries say to the poor countries that they should limit their development? o Developing countries want a tax on the developed countries of the world to help us develop as cleanly as possible  Obama’s tax scheme for cars has not got through the Senate  There is a slight public awareness but it is so so limited This does not really affect the majority of the advanced world – e.g. Canada has many resources and limited population but is low above sea level  it is easy to imagine that if there is some climate catastrophe affecting poor people in the world, there will be tremendous migration to advanced societies - easy to imagine the difficulties of those po▯ie.g. Europe; virtually every country has an extreme-right anti- immigration party – this could only get worse at the end of the 19thC there was a particular marriage between nationalism and imperialism; powerful states wanted a single nation based on size that would give security of supply and market; post-1945 there has been a measure of market interdependence in the world - BUT in a world in which there is pressure from migration and pressure to have one’s own water supplies; size may become attractive to nations all over again o EU might become a closed club – attempts to stop immigrants; USAand Canada could see a return to the 1920s rd with the North more consolidated esp. since oil will not be needed from the 3 world at the expense of the South Global warming = fundamental crisis that could affect all our politics in the near future - will impact international relations; e.g. water is a resource that can be polluted o fracking and more gas is disastrous for the world; will burn up the atmosphere = helped but is also disastrous Does war have a future? – yes and no! Global warming will create all sorts of tensions and restrictions – hard to see how it will lead to war; the concern re. water has had tremendous impact in the Middle East with Palestinian and Israeli territories - will create a new a
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