POLSCI 1G06 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Mutual Assured Destruction, Nuclear Proliferation, The Possession
19 Dec 2016
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Thursday, February 25, 2016
Political Science 1G06 2016 II Lecture 7b: To
proliferate or not to proliferate
To proliferate or not to proliferate
-Did the threat of nuclear annihilation prevent the Cold War from getting hot?
-Supporters of deterrence offer additional case support:
-1969 Sino-Soviet clash
-1999 India-Pakistan clash
-If deterrence were to fail than this would be the location that this would occur
-In many respects this is a critical case for proponents of nuclear deterrence
-This was a case where it was least likely for nuclear deterrence theory to hold:
-New nuclear powers
-Limited Second Strike Capability
-Less than Mutually Assured Destruction
-History of conflict
-Despite all the factors weighing against deterrence (and the fact that the conflict went
right to the brink), in the end a full scale war was avoided
Given the deterrence story, is nuclear weapon proliferation a security problem or
a security solution?
Proliferation Optimists:
-If deterrence worked in the Cold War, then why would it not work in other cases as
well?
-The possession of nuclear weapons means that the costs of aggression will always
outweigh any benefits that aggression could bring
-Consequently if more states are armed with nuclear power, all states would have to
be more cautious in their foreign policy
-Proliferation can produce peace
!1
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