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October 16,2013-3N06 Lecture Notes.doc

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Political Science
Todd Alway

Political Science 3N06 October 16, 2013 Political Science 3N06 2013 Lecture 6b A Sample of Sampling Sampling Strategy of some type is always necessary. - Why are you looking at THIS and not at THAT - Allows you to justify looking at a small piece of a whole - Do not need to look at the entire element; - Every sample take, will be slightly different from the population that the sample was taken from. PROBABILISTIC S AMPLING CONTINUED : - Sampling error will depend on: 1. The nature of the procedure followed - If it was not based on probabilistic means; cannot measure the kind of error. Even if done in a probabilistic way there will be some difference between the small and large; but can measure using probability theorem. 95% etc. - Probability samples have errors that can be estimated - Non-probability samples have errors that cannot be precisely estimated o They may introduce unknown systematic bias into the sample 2. The sample size - The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error o PROVIDED that an appropriate probability sample has been gathered o IF you have a non-probability sample, then increasing the sample size might not make things better. o Literary Digest – In 1930s (excluded those people who would have gone towards the democratic party) o Bigger sample, the smaller the confidence interval;  Decrease sample size; the confidence interval increases N ON -PROBABILISTIC SAMPLES - Non-probabilistic techniques may be required or even desired, depending upon the purposes of your research - Do not use these techniques if your goal is to produce a sample that is representative of the population of interest o Particularly when producing data that will be subjected to statistical analysis - However, non-probabilistic sampling techniques do not always represent a methodological weakness - They are often used in qualitative research (particularly purposive sampling) - If you want a ‘representative’ sample ONLY use PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES; - Depending upon the research question, might not need to do a probabilistic approach. - A) Haphazard, convenience, or accidental sampling - The technique is not likely to produce very representative samples nor conclusions that are generalizable - You must be careful when generalizing your findings - Do not use this o For example CHCH interviewing at random; o Trying to generalize from th
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