PSYCH 2H03 Lecture Notes - Lecture 49: Availability Heuristic, Daniel Kahneman, Inductive Reasoning
26 Feb 2020
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What is our problem: many people think the problem = emotion and this clouds our judgement. Inductive reasoning: observing things in those words, from those observations you form a judgement, observations conclusion, bottom up, observation pattern tentative hypothesis theory. Deductive reasoning: general premise leads to conclusion oe decision about specific case, top down, theory hypothesis observation confirmation. What people actually do is far from ideal" reasoning. For judgment, need to be able to judge frequencies of events (probabilities) Kahneman: people are guided by emotion rather than reason. Aka the isolation effect" or distinctiveness principle". Idea that things that are distinctive will come most readily to mind and be most likely to influence one"s judgement. Memory is better for things that stand out: things that are distinctive, isolated, etc. When we look for evidence, we look for event frequency. To estimate frequency, we use the availability heuristic.
