PSYCH 2H03 Lecture Notes - Lecture 50: Sunk Costs, Conjunction Fallacy, Representativeness Heuristic
26 Feb 2020
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Start from a point (anchor) and move up or down: ex 8*7*6 vs. 6*7*8, 5 seconds to estimate the number, people tend to answer the product of these differently. People use similarity to a prototypical example rather than probability as a basis for judgement: ex: linda is 31 years old, single, and bright. She majored in philosophy and is concerned with issues of social justice. You spend for a ticket to a concert. Later you spend for a ticket to a better concenrt. You realize they"re on the same night and its too late to sell them. But both of these are fallacies in reasoning hindsight bias: People think after the face that they would have known something before the fact when they really would"t have turnin vague statements into solid predictions after the fact. I knew it all along" i told you so". Arkes et al 1981: medical diagnosis two groups of doctors reviewing medical cases.
