PSYCH 2H03 Lecture Notes - Lecture 51: Representativeness Heuristic, Gateway Drug Theory

• School: McMaster University
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSYCH 2H03
• Professor: Ellen Maclellan

Document Summary

We fail to account for regression towards the mean: A fundamental statistical property of the universe is that people routinely fail to account for their reasoning. The next measure will likely be ales extreme. If something is far or below average, the next sample will likely be a little closer to average. Once featured on this magazine, players thought they ended up doing worse in their sports performance. People tended to do worse after their feature on si cover due to a spectacular event. This is likely because with each event you will get closer to the average / mean. Fail to take into account the base rate in the general population. Ex: henri is a quiet man who likes to read poetry. To make a proper judgment we need two things: The base rate: what is the base rate, the probability of something occur in the general population.