BUS 221 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Statistical Hypothesis Testing, Surefire, Confirmation Bias
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We want to approach decisions with a critical mindset. To help with this we will learn some methods & tools. Your (cid:271)rai(cid:374) has t(cid:449)o differe(cid:374)t tale(cid:374)ts or (cid:862)s(cid:455)ste(cid:373)s(cid:863) System 2 is lazy and lets system 1 have too much control. When it comes to abstract ideas concerning economics, criminology, or statistics, our intuitions (rooted in system 1) are very unreliable. To reason effectively you need to learn to avoid sources of error. Certai(cid:374) sour(cid:272)es of error are so (cid:272)o(cid:373)(cid:373)o(cid:374), (cid:449)e(cid:859)(cid:448)e gi(cid:448)e(cid:374) the(cid:373) (cid:374)a(cid:373)es. One important type of sources of error: Note: these (cid:271)iases are (cid:374)ot (cid:862)(cid:271)iases(cid:863) i(cid:374) the ra(cid:272)ist/se(cid:454)ist se(cid:374)se, et(cid:272). System 1 will often give us a quick but inaccurate answers regarding the kinds of questions we need to consider in our business dealings. This does(cid:374)(cid:859)t (cid:373)ea(cid:374) that i(cid:374)tuitio(cid:374)s (cid:894) (cid:455)ste(cid:373) (cid:1005)(cid:895) ha(cid:448)e (cid:374)o role to pla(cid:455) i(cid:374) (cid:271)usi(cid:374)ess. It is wise to provide some oversight to them, that role can only be played by system 2.