CMNS 304W Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Mit Technology Review, Susan Haack, Novum Organum
8 May 2018
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Science: A Meta-narrative of Everyday Life
Science News, Magazine of the Society for Science & the Public, By Cristy Gelling Web edition: June 34,
2013
• …Ne liate siulatios suggest that eduig the leel of atosphei aeosol patiles
produced by human activity might have been the main cause of a recent increase in tropical
storm frequency in the North Atlantic.
• …The authos suggest that high leels of aeosols i the past ooled the sufae of the Noth
Atlantic. This cool patch of the ocean shifted the position of a major air current, suppressing the
formation of hurricanes.
• ...The simulations suggest that by the end of the 21st century, greenhouse gases will reduce
tropical storm frequency once more.
• …We dot at to gie the ipessio pollutio is a good thig, he sas. Othe eseahes
have suggested that decreased aerosols helped end the drought that devastated the Sahel
region of Africa in the 1980s.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Lebanese-American prof of Risk Engineering, NYU, b. 1960) [citing Kahneman
and Tversky]:
• Forecasting professionals...were asked to imagine the following scenarios and estimate their
odds.
o A massive flood somewhere in America in which more than a thousand people die.
o An earthquake in California, causing massive flooding, in which more than a thousand
people die.
• Respondents estimated the first event to be less likely than the second.
o An earthquake in California, however, is a readily imaginable cause, which greatly
increases the mental availability – hence the assessed probability – of the flood
scenario.
The Perfect Prediction Scam
1. On 1 May 2017, send 24,000 letters to strangers before the BC General Election
o 1,200 predict a Liberal Premier
o 1,200 predict an NDP Premier
▪ NDPs Hoga o
2. In November 2017, send 12,000 letters to those who got NDP predictions [ignore those who got
Liberal predictions]
o 6,000 predict that the Toronto Argonauts will win the 2017 Grey Cup
o 6,000 predict that the Calgary Stampeders will win the 2017 Grey Cup
▪ Argonauts won
3. On 1 March, send 6,000 letters to those who got Argonauts predictions [ignore those who got
Stampeders predictions]
o “ed , lettes peditig that Dakest Hou ill i a Aade Aad fo
makeup and hairstyling.
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
2
o “ed , lettes peditig that Vitoia & Adul ill win an Academy Award for
makeup and hairstyling.
o “ed , lettes peditig that Wode ill i a Aade Aad fo akeup ad
hairstyling.
▪ Darkest Hour won
4. In April, send letters to those got correct Academy Award predictions [ignore those who got
loser predictions]
o Offer those 2,000 people a $10,000 investment opportunity (e.g. a soon-to-be-revealed
stock offering, a soon-to-be-eealed iale dug…
▪ Typically, a few will agree to send $10,000 or more
5. Discuss why some people will agree to send $10,000 – or more – to the scam artist
o Panics – trust in of sources
o Want to believe, trust = familiar
o Patterns – probability bias
o Lack of critical thinking
o Affirmation
o Its popula
The Logic of Scientific Prediction
• According to Karl Popper (British philosopher of science, 1902 – 1994):
o Scientific theories cannot be proved true. They can only be falsified, as follows. Theory:
All swans are white.
o The theory is held as valid, as long as all swans observed are white.
o Then, one day, someone finds a black swan. The original theory has been shown to be
false [Note: falsified does not mean that a theory has been made false, as if it were true
before, but is no longer].
o Now, a new theory is needed to describe swans.
• According to Taleb, there are two varieties of rare [i.e. Black Swan] events:
a. The aated Blak “as, those that ae peset i the uet disouse ad that ou
are likely to hear about on television, and
b. those nobody talks about, since they escape models–those that you would feel ashamed
discussig i puli eause the do ot see plausile.
Climate change and economic forecasting models are based on simulations.
• The simulations use computational models that project historical data into the future.
• It is possible to generate different projections, based on the same historical data.
• The more historical factors a model uses, the more potentially accurate – and the more prone to
error – is the model.
o Climate change: The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat
o Efforts to predict the near-term climate are taking off, but their record so far has been
patchy. [Jeff Tollefson, Nature, 10 July 2013]
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Science news, magazine of the society for science & the public, by cristy gelling web edition: june 34, This cool patch of the ocean shifted the position of a major air current, suppressing the formation of hurricanes. Nassim nicholas taleb (lebanese-american prof of risk engineering, nyu, b. The perfect prediction scam: on 1 may 2017, send 24,000 letters to strangers before the bc general election, 1,200 predict a liberal premier, 1,200 predict an ndp premier, ndp(cid:859)s ho(cid:396)ga(cid:374) (cid:449)o(cid:374) In november 2017, send 12,000 letters to those who got ndp predictions [ignore those who got. Stampeders predictions: e(cid:374)d (cid:1006),(cid:1004)(cid:1004)(cid:1004) lette(cid:396)s p(cid:396)edi(cid:272)ti(cid:374)g that (cid:858)da(cid:396)kest hou(cid:396)(cid:859) (cid:449)ill (cid:449)i(cid:374) a(cid:374) a(cid:272)ade(cid:373)(cid:455) a(cid:449)a(cid:396)d fo(cid:396) makeup and hairstyling. 1: e(cid:374)d (cid:1006),(cid:1004)(cid:1004)(cid:1004) lette(cid:396)s p(cid:396)edi(cid:272)ti(cid:374)g that (cid:858)vi(cid:272)to(cid:396)ia & a(cid:271)dul(cid:859) (cid:449)ill win an academy award for makeup and hairstyling, e(cid:374)d (cid:1006),(cid:1004)(cid:1004)(cid:1004) lette(cid:396)s p(cid:396)edi(cid:272)ti(cid:374)g that (cid:858)wo(cid:374)de(cid:396)(cid:859) (cid:449)ill (cid:449)i(cid:374) a(cid:374) a(cid:272)ade(cid:373)(cid:455) a(cid:449)a(cid:396)d fo(cid:396) (cid:373)akeup a(cid:374)d hairstyling, darkest hour won.
