ECON 2200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Conspicuous Consumption, Omen, Zakat
The Salience of the Middle East
The world remains vitally dependent on Middle Eastern oil. Almost three decades after the first oil
price shock of 1973-74, oil remains of critical importance to consumers and producers alike. OPEC,
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is still alive and doing well in spite of repeated
announcements of its demise and the sometimes alleged irrelevance of oil. Despite concerns about
greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, the world economy remains highly dependent on
oil, which provides 40 per cent of the world’s primary energy. Despite the extensive search for oil
elsewhere over the past 30 years, more than half of the world’s oil reserves are located in Middle
Eastern OPEC member countries.
世界依然严重依赖中东石油。在 1973 - 1974 年第一次石油价格冲击之后的近三十年，石油对
消费者和生产者都至关重要。石油输出国组织石油输出国组织尽管一再宣布其石油消亡和有时
称石油不相容，但它仍然活着并表现良好。尽管人们担心化石燃料燃烧造成的温室气体排放，
但世界经济仍高度依赖石油，石油占世界主要能源的 40％。尽管过去 30 年来在其他地方广泛
搜寻石油，但世界上一半以上的石油储量位于中东欧佩克成员国。
Middle Eastern politics directly affects the United States and the rest of the world, at times in most
unexpected ways. The study of potential links between oil exports and the rise of Islam is empirically
difficult. Oil exports and their revenues are easy to define, and figures are publicly available, but
Islamism is hard to define. Many diverse groups are difficult to compare. They range in quality from
gradualist and pragmatic through revolutionary to Messianic. Most are non-violent, but some are
extremely violent, as demonstrated by the terrorist attacks on New Yorkand Washington.DC, o
September 11, 2001. Groups also differ in size. Most are small, but some are part of wild networks.
Most Islamist groups operate clandestinely because they are illegal or subject to police surveillance.
Their life-spans vary because of repression, in-fighting and competition. As well as mergers and
takeover cases.
中东政治直接影响美国和世界其他地区，有时候是以最意想不到的方式。研究石油出口与伊斯
兰教崛起之间的潜在联系在经验上是困难的。石油出口和收入很容易确定，数字可以公开获得，
但伊斯兰教很难界定。许多不同的群体很难比较。他们的品质从渐进主义和务实到革命到弥赛
亚。大多数是非暴力的，但有些是非常暴力的，如 2001 年9月11 日在纽约和华盛顿举行的恐
怖袭击所证明的。团体的规模也不同。大多数都很小，但有些是野生网络的一部分。大多数伊
斯兰组织秘密行动，因为它们是非法的或受到警方监视。他们的生命跨度因压制，战斗和竞争
而异。以及兼并和收购案件。
One view is that attacks on New York and Washington, DC, were carried out by fanatics motivated by
violent religious sensibilities, unrelated to the economic, social and political problems of the Middle
East, such as poverty or Israel’s occupation of Palestine. In this perspective, fighting terrorism means
eliminating individuals and small groups. Oil is not an issue, neither as a cause of terrorism nor as a
potential target. Another view holds that a terrorist network has thrived on the political and economic
bitterness felt in much of the Arab world and the Middle East are motivated by oppression and by their
opposition to corrupt, authoritarian Arab governments that are supported by the United States and
other Western powers. In this case, fighting terrorism means not only eliminating individuals and
small groups, but also undertaking comprehensive economic, social and political reforms.
一种观点认为，对纽约和华盛顿特区的袭击是由狂热的宗教情感驱动的狂热分子进行的，这与
中东的经济，社会和政治问题无关，例如贫穷或以色列占领巴勒斯坦。从这个角度来看，打击
恐怖主义意味着消除个人和小团体。石油不是问题，既不是恐怖主义的原因，也不是潜在的目
标。另一种观点认为，恐怖主义网络在阿拉伯世界大部分地区遭受的政治和经济苦难中蓬勃发
展，中东受到压迫和反对由美国和其他西方支持的腐败，专制的阿拉伯政府的动机权力。在这
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
种情况下，打击恐怖主义不仅意味着消除个人和小团体，而且还要进行全面的经济，社会和政
治改革。
In this representative, oil is a key factor: it has provided huge revenues for the rulers, but neither
political reform nor sufficient prosperity for the people. Since 1970, oil revenues have profoundly
changed the societies of the Middle East, but there has been little political change that can cope with
the ambitions of more numerous, younger and better educated generations. The outcome has been a
society with rising social and economic inequalities and generational conflicts. The bitterness has also
been caused by Arab defeats against Israel, by the plight of Palestinians and by the enduring sanctions
against Iraq
在这个代表中，石油是一个关键因素：它为统治者提供了巨大的收入，但既没有政治改革，也
没有为人民提供足够的繁荣。自1970 年以来，石油收入已经深刻地改变了中东社会，但几乎
没有什么政治变化可以应对更多，更年轻，受教育程度更高的世代的野心。结果是一个社会和
经济不平等和世代冲突日益严重的社会。阿拉伯战胜以色列，巴勒斯坦人的困境以及对伊拉克
的持久制裁也造成了这种痛苦。
It is hard to assess the extent and the intensity of the resentment against the rulers in place and their
Western allies and protectors because of the lack of freedom of assembly and expression in most. If
not all, Arab countries. The West has become a victim of its own trap in the Middle East. By
supporting corrupt and dictatorial regimes for immediate economic and strategic advantages, the West
has prevented the kind of change necessary to stabilize these countires through representative
government. Western oil interests and economic stability are shaky when dependent on moribund
political systems and paralyzed societies. The United States has provided military, political and at
times economic support in return for access to oil. At times the United States, again often supported by
allies has actively destabilized Middle Eastern governments with a popular mandate, as happened in
Iran in 1953.
由于大多数人缺乏集会和表达自由，很难评估对当地统治者及其西方盟友和保护者的怨恨程度
和强度。如果不是全部，阿拉伯国家。西方已经成为其在中东陷阱的受害者。通过支持腐败和
独裁政权以获得直接的经济和战略优势，西方已经阻止了通过代表性政府来稳定这些优势的必
要变革。西方石油利益和经济稳定依赖于垂死的政治制度和瘫痪的社会。美国提供军事，政治
和有时获得经济支持以换取石油。有时美国再次经常得到盟国的支持，它们正在以一种普遍的
授权方式积极地破坏中东政府的稳定，就像 1953 年在伊朗发生的那样。
Rising Western dependence on the Middle Eastern oil since the 1960s has not been matched by efforts
to stabilize the region politically. Although the United States is increasingly dependent on oil imports
and on the Middle East supplying the world market with volumes sufficient to stabilize price, there
has, so far, been little interest or insight into Middle Eastern affairs. The wisdom of giving
unquestioning support to corrupt and authoritarian regimes because they export oil is not evident. The
error has been to equate secure oil supplies with regimes more dependent on Western backing than on
a popular mandate. Such a policy can backfire – as it did for the United States in Iran. In this
perspective, the September 2001 terrorist attacks may appear as the forerunner of more trouble insofar
as they express a widespread but so far hidden discontent. In that case, oil supplies and prices could be
at stake.
自从20 世纪60 年代以来，西方对中东石油的依赖不断上升，这与政治上稳定该地区的努力并
不相称。尽管美国越来越依赖石油进口和中东地区向世界市场提供足以稳定价格的数量，但迄
今为止，对中东事务的兴趣或见解不大。由于出口石油而给予腐败和威权政权无可置疑的支持
的智慧并不明显。错误在于将安全的石油供应等同于更依赖西方支持的政权而不是普遍的任务。
这种政策可能会适得其反，就像它在美国在伊朗所做的一样。从这个角度来看，2001 年9月的
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
恐怖袭击可能表现出更多麻烦的先驱，因为它们表达了普遍但迄今为止隐藏的不满。在这种情
况下，石油供应和价格可能会受到威胁
The Middle Eastern Rentier State
The chapter discusses the internal pressures that have been building up in the oil-exporting countries
of the Middle East due to rising population pressures, an economic monoculture and political rigidity.
In the 1970s and early 1980s, huge oil revenues distorted economic development and caused political
centralization within the state. Regardless of oil process, the economic basis for this mode of
development is no longer present. Economic restructuring away from oil is urgent, but success will
depend on political power shifting from the state to the private sector, and from the rulers to the ruled.
本章讨论了由于人口压力增加，经济单一化和政治僵化等原因，在中东石油输出国建立的内部
压力。在二十世纪七十年代和八十年代初期，石油巨额收入扭曲了经济发展并导致了国家内部
的政治集权。无论石油加工如何，这种发展模式的经济基础已不复存在。经济转型离石油是迫
切的，但成功将取决于政治权力从国家转移到私营部门，从统治者转移到被统治者。
Historically, in the key Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries there has been at least some connection
between rising oil revenues and lagging political reforms. Today’s regimes depend on oil revenues to
prevent or delay reforms in the short run, and to survive in the long run. Rentier states need access to
economic rent to survive. The politically conditioned need for revenues, to but support and legitimacy,
reduces oil policy discretion. The alternative is economic reform, with a more independent private
sector and direct taxation, followed up by political reforms aiming at a more representative form of
government.
从历史上看，在中东主要石油出口国，石油收入上涨和政治改革滞后之间至少存在某种联系。
今天的政权依靠石油收入在短期内阻止或推迟改革，并长期保持生存。 Rentier 州需要获得经
济租金才能生存。政治条件下的收入需求，但支持和合法性，降低了石油政策的自由裁量权。
另一种选择是经济改革，私人部门更加独立，直接征税，随后进行旨在代表政府形式的政治改
革。
Rising prosperity based solely on oil is a phenomenon of the past in the Middle East. With few
exceptions, today’s Gulf oil exporters face a race against time, as they have to develop away from oil
dependence and their populations are rising quickly. Political implications are important, as rulers
financed by erstwhile plentiful oil revenues are coming under increasing pressure to share power with
representatives of the private sector – not only it bosses, but also its works
纯粹以石油为基础的繁荣昌盛是中东过去的现象。除了少数例外，今天的海湾石油出口商面临
着与时间赛跑，因为他们不得不摆脱石油依赖，他们的人口正在迅速上升。政治影响是重要的，
因为由过去丰富的石油收入资助的统治者正面临越来越大的压力与私营部门的代表分享权力 -
不仅是老板，而且其作品
In the Middle East, oil has caused a special, capital intensive mode of development. With high oil
revenues, capital accumulation could take place at a much higher rate in the public sector than in
private business. Control of the accumulation process moved from private capitalists to pubic sector
bureaucrats and autocratic rulers. Oil money strengthened the state and the bureaucracy in relation to
private business, creating a distinctive political system based on the centralization of petroleum
revenues within the state.
在中东，石油已经导致了一种特殊的，资本密集型的发展模式。由于石油收入高，公共部门的
资本积累可能高于私人部门。积累过程的控制权从私人资本家转移到了公共部门的官僚和专制
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
The world remains vitally dependent on middle eastern oil. Almost three decades after the first oil price shock of 1973-74, oil remains of critical importance to consumers and producers alike. Opec, the organization of petroleum exporting countries, is still alive and doing well in spite of repeated announcements of its demise and the sometimes alleged irrelevance of oil. Despite concerns about greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, the world economy remains highly dependent on oil, which provides 40 per cent of the world"s primary energy. Despite the extensive search for oil elsewhere over the past 30 years, more than half of the world"s oil reserves are located in middle. Middle eastern politics directly affects the united states and the rest of the world, at times in most unexpected ways. The study of potential links between oil exports and the rise of islam is empirically difficult.
