ECON282 Lecture Notes - Lecture 35: Output Gap, Phillips Curve, Rational Expectations

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Gdp increases is a movement along the philips curve. Negative and positive supply shocks shift the philips curve. Example: suppose the economy is in equilibrium with an output gap equal to zero and the actual inflation rate equals the expected inflation rate. If an earthquake destroys most of a country"s infrastructure the phillips curve _hifts up_________ and inflation ______rises__________. Example: if gdp grew +5% in 2016 and then grew +10% in 2017. Gdp growth went up 100% b/w 2016 & 2017 (i. e. it doubled) Gdp growth went up by 5 percentage points (from 5% to 10%)b/w 2016 & 2017. Tells us how much inflation rises when output increases by 1% Shifts are the same: pc shifts up if increases. Example: natural disasters, high oil prices, financial crisis. A sho(cid:272)k is a(cid:374)y eve(cid:374)t that people do(cid:374)"t see (cid:272)o(cid:373)i(cid:374)g a(cid:374)d has a (cid:271)ig i(cid:373)pa(cid:272)t o(cid:374) the e(cid:272)o(cid:374)o(cid:373)y. Negative supply shock are ones that are push up business costs/ prevents businesses from taking loans.

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