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POLS 3180 October 2 2013 Research Methods I.docx

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University of Guelph
Political Science
POLS 3180
Edward Koning

October 2 2013 POLS 3180 POLS 3180 October 2 2013 Research Methods I Theories and Hypothesis For essays due next week Office hours 130-330 today Friday 130-330 - Causation and causal models OVERALL just means that reading data must be taken into account in a correct manner. How can we be sure we are dealing with causality (connection)? - Co- variation (or correlation) what do we conclude from data and information o The assumption that fire trucks lead to property damage does not work because it is the other way around o We are misunderstanding the nature of the relationship - Theoretical/ logical explanation - Cause precedes effects: absence of reverse causality (connection) o There is a co variation between democratic countries being members of more international organizations o Can not be sure that more international organizations lead to democracy - Non spuriousness Causation does not mean: - Complete explanation - Absence of outliers: especially in probabilistic causation and not deterministic causation o Pointing out that there are outliers does not disprove that a causation relationship exists. o Particular cases: outliers - Effect observable in majority cases o Likelihood an event will take place Does Theory Before or After Research? Th
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