PSYC 1200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Prefrontal Cortex, Conjunction Fallacy, Representativeness Heuristic
29 Dec 2017
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Document Summary
100 physicians were tested and 95 of them estimated the probability that cancer was present to be about. 75%, the correct answer was 8: when the same study was done, there were dramatically different results when frequency was used instead of probability. 10/1000 women actually have breast cancer instead of 1% of women actually have breast cancer, led 46% of the physicians to derive the right answer compared to 8% using probabilities. Either way the is gone and will not come back why do we make decis ion-making errors ? psychologist have discovered why each decision we make suffers from a fallacy. When people are asked to make probability judgments, they will turn the problem into something they know who to solve, such as judging memory strength, judging similarity to prototypes, or estimating frequencies. This can lead to errors of judgment: when problem fits their mental algorithms, people show considerable skill at making appropriate judgments.
