AFM273 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Business Cycle, Risk Premium, Capital Asset Pricing Model

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To make different securities comparable, we express their performance in terms of their returns: the return indicates the percentage increase in the value of an investment per dollar initially invested in the security. Probability distribution: assigns a probability, pr, that each possible return, r, will occur. Expected (or mean) return: calculated as a weighted average of the possible returns, where the weights correspond to the probabilities. Variance and standard deviation: variance: expected squared deviation from the mean. Standard deviation and variance are two common measures of risk of probability distribution. Increases with the magnitude of the deviations from the mean: 0 when the return has no risk and never deviates from the mean, measu(cid:396)es ho(cid:449) (cid:862)sp(cid:396)ead out" the dist(cid:396)i(cid:271)utio(cid:374) of the (cid:396)etu(cid:396)(cid:374) is. Standard deviation: square root of the variance: volatility: the standard deviation of a return, easier to interpret because it is in the same units as the returns.

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