Lecture 16 Geog 121
To analyze how demographic patterns changed in industrializing societies.
To consider the factors that drove changes.
Defining Demographic Transition:
Aprocess characterized first by a decline in death rates (leading to a rapid growth in
population) and later a fall in birth rates (at which point population growth slows).
Demographic transition model
Counting People: Some approximations
Variations at national, regional and local scales
How do we know what we know?
birth and death documents
not the most accurate
later 19 century help with death rate
may give total populations
baptisms and funerals
Year Asia Eup USSR Africa Americas Oceania World
1750 500 111 35 104 18 3 771
1850 790 209 79 102 59 2 1,241
European populations in millions
Country 1750 1850
England 5.7 16.5 (2.89)
Germany 15 27 (1.8)
France 25 35.8 (1.43) Life expectancy in two countries
Country c.1750 c.1850
England 37 40
France 28 40
Life expectancy in two cases
Survival time ranged from:
41.7 years (in 1581-85) to a low of 27.8 years (in 1561-65).
Average for entire period: 35.5 years
Survival time ranged between
24 and 28 years (for males), and 26 and 30 years (for females)
By the mid-19th Century, survival rates for both men and women
reached over 40 years for most western European countries.
MAIN CAUSES OF DEATH
Population growth tends to outstrip growth of food production
supply – a limit would be met
Populations must suffer periodic mortality increases in the absence of virtuous
preventative checks because of declining living standards.
“Positive checks”: Famine, Disease, and War
“Preventative checks”:Abstinence, and Delayed Marriage
Assumptions of Malthus model:
The dynamics of a primarily agrarian society, in terms of :
The prevailing food production system, including the crops grown