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GEOG 121
Matthew Evenden

Lecture 16 Geog 121 Demographic Change Learning Objectives:  To analyze how demographic patterns changed in industrializing societies.  To consider the factors that drove changes. Defining Demographic Transition:  Aprocess characterized first by a decline in death rates (leading to a rapid growth in population) and later a fall in birth rates (at which point population growth slows). Demographic transition model Counting People: Some approximations  Variations at national, regional and local scales  How do we know what we know?  Population census  birth and death documents  not the most accurate  medical directories th  later 19 century help with death rate  tax records  may give total populations  parish records  baptisms and funerals  gravestones- labourious World Population Year Asia Eup USSR Africa Americas Oceania World 1750 500 111 35 104 18 3 771 1850 790 209 79 102 59 2 1,241 European populations in millions Country 1750 1850 England 5.7 16.5 (2.89) Germany 15 27 (1.8) France 25 35.8 (1.43) Life expectancy in two countries Country c.1750 c.1850 England 37 40 France 28 40 Life expectancy in two cases England, 1541-1871: Survival time ranged from: 41.7 years (in 1581-85) to a low of 27.8 years (in 1561-65). Average for entire period: 35.5 years France, 1740-1790: Survival time ranged between 24 and 28 years (for males), and 26 and 30 years (for females) By the mid-19th Century, survival rates for both men and women reached over 40 years for most western European countries. MAIN CAUSES OF DEATH TOP 5 convulsions consumpton fevers smallpox age Thomas Malthus  Population growth tends to outstrip growth of food production  supply – a limit would be met  Populations must suffer periodic mortality increases in the absence of virtuous preventative checks because of declining living standards.  “Positive checks”: Famine, Disease, and War  “Preventative checks”:Abstinence, and Delayed Marriage Assumptions of Malthus model:  The dynamics of a primarily agrarian society, in terms of :  population characteristics  The prevailing food production system, including the crops grown
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