ANP 1105 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Hindsight Bias, Lie Detection, Psychological Science
18 Dec 2015
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Chapter 1 thinking critically with psychological science. Our thinking, memory, and attitudes operate on 2 levels, conscious and unconscious, with the larger part operating automatically (autopilot). (intuitive mind) Intuition is important, but we often underestimated its perils (people will overestimate their lie detection accuracy, their eyewitness recollections, their interviewee assessments, their risk predictions, and their stock-picking talents). Finding that something has happened makes it seem inevitable, a tendency we call hindsight bias (also known as the i-knew-it- all-along phenomenon)(gut-feeling). Hindsight bias the tendency to believe after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. (example: the love separation experiment with 2 groups, p 16). Just asking people how and why they felt or acted as they did can sometimes be misleading not because common sense is usually wrong, but because common sense more easily describes what has happened than what will happen. We tend to think we know more than we do.
