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Lecture 10

GGR333H5 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Human Capital, Dutch Disease, Peak Oil


Department
Geography
Course Code
GGR333H5
Professor
Pierre Desrochers
Lecture
10

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GGR333 March 15, 2016
McKelvey Box (1972)
- Effective stocks of natural resources continually expanded by technological
developments
-
Simon’s Conclusions
- Malthus (1798) is wrong:
o Population increased at all kinds of different rates historically
o Food production increased as least as fast, if not faster
- Hotelling is wrong:
o No discernible trend towards higher prices, just the opposite
o Only exception: human capital (cost of labour)
- Resources created by the always renewable resource of the human intellect
o Key points:
People don’t buy resources, but services
There are always new ways to do things
M. King Hubbert
- Main arguments:
o Symmetrical exhaustion curve
o Published reserve figures grossly overestimate real reserves
o Exploratory drilling has already discovered most of earth’s oil
Peak Oil and Smart Growth
(Some New Urbanists)
1) Fuel prices will soon be unaffordable for auto drivers
2) For cars, no substitute for oil
3) Higher prices less driving
4) Less driving higher density (new urbanism)
The Problem with Hubbert
- US Peak (early 1970s)
o Peak 18% above Hubbert’s prediction
o Decline curve much less steep than anticipated
o Might no even be peak at all…
- US timing right, but mostly because
o Cheaper Middle East supply
o US internal regulation (no drilling in various locations…)
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
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