PHL145H5 Lecture Notes - Lecture 21: Relative Risk, Base Rate, Wishful Thinking
Document Summary
There is no way to avoid all risks. Using numbers can make it easier to understand. They are numbers from 0 to 1, and they can be interpreted as probabilities. Numbers with such large denominators are hard to comprehend. It is possible to round such fractions off and reduce them down to more meaningful numbers, but this can take time. (number of deaths / number in target population) x c. Where c in the common denominator we use for all of the risks. Ex: if we want to express the risk ratio as number per million than c is one million. Finding a denominator that is relevant to the risk, is the only way to get useful information. Underestimate high probabilities and overestimate low probabilities. Identify the things that are large risks in your life or your family"s life: adopt the measures that have the highest probabilities of helping you avoid those risks.
